Russian Urals Crude Averages $41.66 per Barrel in Early July

The price had risen above $59 a barrel each month since March and reached $60.92 in June after the United States and Iran agreed to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The decline eliminates the revenue increase Moscow received from higher prices. Russia's federal budget assumes oil prices near $59 a barrel. Oil and gas revenues make up roughly one-third of federal budget receipts.

Higher prices had allowed the Kremlin to add funds to its reserve account for the first time in nearly a year and to postpone planned spending reductions. With Urals now near $42 a barrel, those additions may end.

Reuters reported Monday that a European intelligence assessment described Russian banks as increasingly exposed after years of war-related lending. The assessment estimated that about 10 percent of corporate loans are now doubtful and that some major lenders hold retail non-performing loan ratios as high as 15 percent.

It also recorded more than 500,000 personal bankruptcies in 2025. Ukraine continues operations against Russian energy infrastructure.