Scientists Assess Potential for Strong El Niño Event in 2024
Climate scientists have noted an increasing likelihood of an El Niño event forming later in 2024, with a 61% chance according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A strong El Niño, defined by sea surface temperatures rising at least 2°C in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, could alter global weather patterns.
theinertia.comNiño El Niño involves warm water from the western Pacific moving eastward, replacing normally cooler water.
El Niño occurs when warm water that's built up in the West Pacific sloshes to the east and replaces that normally cold water with warmer water. And a super El Niño condition is when that warmer water basically erases the cold tongue.
5°C in weaker events.
Global Weather Impacts El Niño effects vary by region.
Areas with low normal rainfall may receive more rain, while typically wet areas may become drier. A strong El Niño could lead to a quieter Atlantic hurricane season but more activity in the central Pacific. South Asia's summer monsoon may weaken, and drought conditions could affect parts of the Amazon and Australia in fall and winter.
In the United States, southern regions might experience more rain and cooler temperatures, while northern areas could see warmer-than-average conditions. El Niño events have occurred five times at strong levels since 1950.
Change Scientists are examining the relationship between El Niño and climate change.
Some studies suggest that warmer atmospheres and oceans from fossil fuel emissions may intensify El Niño events, though consensus is not universal. Forecasting remains challenging in the current climate and more so in a warmer one.
The potential for altered rainfall patterns could affect crop production in various regions. Risks of crop failures in normally wet areas due to reduced rainfall during El Niño.
Key Facts
Story Timeline
4 events- April 9, 2024
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts 61% chance of El Niño and 25% chance of strong event.
1 sourceTime - March 2024
Copernicus Climate Change Service records second-warmest global sea surface temperature on record.
1 sourceTime - January-March 2024
United States experiences driest period on record; Europe has second-warmest March.
1 sourceTime - 2015-2016
Last strong El Niño event occurs.
1 sourceTime
Potential Impact
- 01
Drought conditions may develop in parts of the Amazon and Australia.
- 02
Southern U.S. regions may receive more rain and cooler temperatures during a strong El Niño.
- 03
Atlantic hurricane season could be quieter with increased central Pacific activity.
- 04
Risk of crop failures could arise in normally wet areas due to rainfall redistribution.
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