Semiconductor Index Posts 15 Days of 3% Moves in 30 Trading Days While Up Over 80% Year-to-Date

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index recorded 15 days of 3% or greater moves within the previous 30 trading days as of Thursday, according to BTIG. On Thursday the index closed up 3%, finishing above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages but below its 20-day moving average. The index rose 2% on Wednesday, fell 4.7% on Tuesday and gained 2% on Monday.

It advanced 22% in May and 11% in June yet stands 9% lower so far in July, CNBC reported. Its year-to-date gain exceeds 80%. Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG chief market technician, wrote that the only prior periods matching this pattern of 15 days of 3% moves while above the 200-day average occurred in February-March 1999 and February-July 2000.

He noted those episodes preceded drawdowns of 17% or more in 1995, 1997, 2000, 2020 and 2024. Russell 2000 semiconductor stocks posted a 3-month gain of 104.4%, surpassing the 96.6% advance recorded before the February 2000 dot-com peak, Jefferies analysts said.

Steven DeSanctis of Jefferies wrote that after similar large leaps the group posted average subsequent returns of 7.0% over three months and 15.4% over six months.

SK Hynix shares are scheduled to begin trading on the Nasdaq on Friday. The company is seeking to raise almost $30 billion through the issuance of 18 million shares to purchase photolithography machines and build new facilities, CNBC reported. Traders at Morgan Stanley and UBS said the new supply could add downside pressure to the sector.