Social Security Trustees Lower Long-Run Fertility Projection to 1.75, Move Trust Fund Exhaustion Date to 2032

Trustees for the Social Security trust fund lowered their long-run projection for the national fertility rate in the annual report released Tuesday. 9 rate assumed last year. S.

6, the lowest level in a century, according to the most recent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. 53. The trustees also moved the projected exhaustion date for the Social Security retirement trust fund forward to 2032.

The Old Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund is now expected to pay only 78 percent of scheduled benefits in the fourth quarter of 2032. The combined OASI and disability insurance trust funds are projected to pay full benefits until 2034, after which they would cover 83 percent of scheduled benefits. 42 percent over the past year.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget attributed half of that deterioration to the lower fertility assumptions. Romina Boccia, director of budget and entitlement policy at the Cato Institute, said the trustees’ higher fertility projection creates the illusion of more revenues and underestimates the shortfall by almost 10 percent.

“The problem with these assumptions is that it creates the illusion that there will be more revenues coming in the program than is likely going to be the case,” she told the Washington Examiner.

Mark Warshawsky, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said lower fertility will mean lower economic growth and lower revenue growth for the federal government, causing budget deficits to increase faster. Lyman Stone, senior fellow and director of the Pronatalism Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies, said the biggest single factor driving down fertility rates is that marriage is declining.