SpaceX Shifts Focus to Starship Over Falcon 9 at California Launch Site

SpaceX conducted 165 launches with its Falcon 9 rocket last year but plans only about 140 to 145 this year as the company shifts focus to its much larger Starship vehicle. The decline marks the first drop in Falcon 9 launch numbers in years even though the rocket remains fully operational and in demand.

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell told Time earlier this year that launches would tail off as Starship comes online. The changes are most visible at Cape Canaveral in Florida where SpaceX has historically launched the majority of its rockets. Launch Complex-39A at NASA's Kennedy Space Center has transitioned primarily to Starship and occasional Falcon Heavy flights with the first such Heavy mission in 18 months occurring last week.

Activity has also slowed at the nearby Space Launch Complex-40. SpaceX retired one of its two Florida-based droneships last month to repurpose it for transporting Starships and Super Heavy boosters from Texas to Florida. The remaining vessel can support a launch and recovery every four days but such rapid turnarounds have become uncommon at the site.

Vandenberg has handled more than half of all SpaceX launches so far this year compared with less than 40 percent last year. The California site can support Falcon 9 launches from the same pad every three to four days making it the company's busiest launch location for now.

Sources indicate this trend will continue through the year potentially allowing Vandenberg to surpass combined Florida spaceport activity.

The Falcon 9 will remain in service at least until the International Space Station retires which is now unlikely before 2032. Both the Space Force and NASA continue to rely on the vehicle and its Dragon capsule for crew and cargo transport into the 2030s.

Starship however will begin carrying upgraded Starlink satellites soon after it becomes operational. The company ultimately aims to use Starship for orbital data centers a project linked to its acquisition of xAI as well as multiple refueling launches needed for NASA lunar missions.

Starship's greater payload capacity makes these ambitions feasible in ways the Falcon 9 cannot match. Rival Blue Origin has only recently achieved reusable rocket landings that Falcon 9 has performed routinely for years. SpaceX is constructing a second Starship factory at Kennedy Space Center but intends to begin Starship flights from Florida even before that facility is complete.

The company has not announced plans for a Starship pad in California. Kiko Dontchev the vice president of launch noted that with Launch Complex-39A focused on Falcon Heavy and Starship only one operational droneship is needed on the East Coast.

Vandenberg hosted just one orbital launch in 2020 but has seen steady growth in activity. Col. James Horne commander of Space Launch Delta 30 at Vandenberg said launch rates from the site could potentially triple in the next five years. The Space Force is preparing infrastructure upgrades including new construction and greater automation to handle projected increases in launch cadence.

Col. Brian Chatman who oversees Cape Canaveral's range said the military expects as many as 500 launches per year from Florida's Space Coast by 2036. Nearly 180 rockets launched from the combined Florida and California federal spaceports last year including both orbital missions and missile tests.

The overall U.S. launch trend continues upward though the pace will depend heavily on when Starship achieves routine operations. SpaceX maintains Launch Complex-39A as available for Falcon Heavy which has a handful of missions scheduled later this year.

The Falcon 9 itself shows no technical issues and its reduced flight rate reflects strategic prioritization rather than any operational shortfall. >"This year we’ll still launch a lot but not as much.