Strait of Hormuz Closure Shifts Global Trade to African Routes and Middle East Land Corridors

"The rerouting of ships around Africa has become systematic," stated Ronan Boudet, head of container intelligence at Kpler.

Ships now skirt around Africa by following its eastern coast to the Cape of Good Hope in southern South Africa before heading north towards Europe and the Mediterranean. According to Yves Guillo, a supply chain expert at Efeso, 70 percent of the freight traffic that went through the Red Sea in 2023 is being rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope.

Data from the International Monetary Fund's PortWatch platform indicate that commercial vessel traffic via the Cape of Good Hope has more than tripled in three years, while traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait has fallen by more than half.

Between March 1 and April 24, 2026, an average of 20 commercial vessels went round the Cape of Good Hope every day, compared with six in the same period in 2023, per PortWatch data. The average number of transits per day through Bab al-Mandeb fell to five between March and April 2026, from 18 in the same period in 2023.

Transport times between Asia and Europe have lengthened by an average of two weeks, Guillo said.

Costs have risen due to 30 to 50 percent more fuel needed and 10 to 20 percent more ships required to ensure the same frequency of service. The average price to transport a standard 40-foot container on main shipping routes increased by 14 percent in April 2026 compared to April 2025, according to Guillo citing the Drewry freight index. 4 percent, according to the Tanger Med Port Authority.

Egypt lost $7 billion in toll revenues from the Suez Canal in 2024, a drop of more than 60 percent compared with 2023, according to CyclOpe. "With the current situation in the Gulf, we have put several more coins in the machine, it's not going to get better anytime soon," Edouard Louis-Dreyfus, chairman of French shipping giant Louis Dreyfus Armateurs, told AFP, as reported by Al-Monitor.