Strait of Hormuz Shut More Than 100 Days, Oil Supply Falls 10.1 Million Barrels Daily

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut for more than 100 days. World Trade Organization data shows a 95 percent reduction in crude oil shipments from Arabian Gulf ports and a 99 percent reduction in liquified natural gas carriers from the same ports. 4 million barrels per day month-on-month.

Matt Stanley, head of market engagement at Kpler, a commodity intelligence and ship-tracking firm, said the scale of oil that has moved through the strait since May 1 remains difficult to measure. Vessels have been running without AIS transponders on, moving at night closer to the Omani border, sometimes with naval escort.

Stanley stated it is possible that 100 million barrels made it through since May 1.

Pre-conflict traffic through the strait averaged about 20 million barrels a day. Stanley noted that 100 million barrels equals roughly five days of normal traffic and called the volume a relative drop compared with previous flows. Upper Zakum crude oil, which cannot be exported via Fujairah outside the strait, has appeared in other markets, one oil market analyst said.

The UAE’s Murban crude can be shipped from Fujairah without passing through the strait. 55 per barrel, the lowest level since before the conflict began. The International Energy Agency has called the supply disruption the largest in the history of the global oil market.

3 billion barrels in storage and has been drawing down stocks at around 1 million barrels a day. 5 million barrels a day in December. , Brazil, and Canada have stepped in to replace part of the lost supply.

Iman Nasseri, managing director for the Middle East at FGE NexantECA, said the market has responded by cutting parts of demand and releasing stocks, though he expects those buffers to diminish if the strait remains closed past July. Analysis by S&P Global CERA estimates restart timelines of 10 weeks to seven months for fields shut down for two months.