Strait of Hormuz Vessel Traffic Drops to 2-5 Ships Daily From 70

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to two to five ships daily from about 70, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said. The prolonged closure has already sent fuel prices soaring and produced a disruption of almost 1 billion barrels of oil. Nasser warned that a continued closure could cut global oil supply by about 100 million barrels per week.

He called the closure the biggest energy supply shock ever and noted the crisis could delay full market normalization until 2027 if it drags on. The loss of around 1 billion barrels has been partly offset by alternative routes and reserves. Aramco is expanding non-Hormuz export routes, including its Red Sea terminal.

Nasser stated the oil market won’t return to normal this year if the Iran conflict isn’t solved within weeks. A further prolonging of the Strait of Hormuz closure risks a historic energy shock, analysts warned. Despite the disruption of almost 1 billion barrels of oil, crude prices have remained below their 2022 peak.

Morgan Stanley said if no agreement was reached by late June, oil could exceed $130 a barrel. JPMorgan forecast that US pump prices could hit $5 a gallon. US pump prices were below $3 in February. The US energy secretary refused to rule out the possibility of suspending gasoline taxes.

Asian nations are turning to coal. Nasser’s assessment underscores the scale of the supply interruption even as markets have drawn on inventories and rerouted cargoes. The CEO’s comments come as the conflict has curtailed the waterway’s role as the primary conduit for Gulf crude exports.