Strong El Niño Expected to Affect Global Weather and Economies

A strong El Niño is forming in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to reach peak intensity during the winter months. The event features unusually warm surface waters near the equator that shift global atmospheric circulation.

Past intense El Niños produced widespread flooding in some regions and drought in others. 7 trillion in global income losses over five years, according to a 2023 study in the journal Science. 1 trillion in losses during the same period. Computer models indicate the current El Niño could exceed the strength of those earlier episodes, though forecasters say peak intensity will not be known until it occurs.

Coral bleaching and crop losses have accompanied previous strong events.

Accurate seasonal forecasts have been available since the early 1980s. These projections allow governments and aid organizations to prepare for changes in hurricane activity and regional rainfall patterns. Andrew Kruczkiewicz, a researcher at Columbia University’s Climate School, said humanitarian groups are already positioning food supplies in southeastern Africa and other vulnerable areas.

Nathan Lenssen, a scientist at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, noted that climate change may alter typical El Niño effects because global ocean temperatures are higher than in past events.

U.S. foreign aid programs and the dismantling of USAID could limit the ability of some countries to distribute food and medicine after El Niño-related disasters, Lenssen said. He added that El Niño events have historically caused drought and famine in parts of the global south.