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Study Estimates 70% Chance Ebola Reaches South Sudan
A modelling study published Thursday put the probability of Ebola spreading from the Democratic Republic of Congo into South Sudan at 70%. Researchers identified gaps in case management, contact tracing, and border surveillance as key vulnerabilities.
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A modelling study published Thursday estimated a 70% chance that the current Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo could reach South Sudan. The study, published in The Lancet, examined the Bundibugyo ebolavirus strain that has already spread from the Democratic Republic of Congo into Uganda.
The outbreak has recorded more than 1,000 confirmed cases and more than 260 deaths in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Uganda has reported 20 confirmed cases, two confirmed deaths, and one probable death. Researchers said South Sudan has some of the weakest public health infrastructure in the region.
Researchers called for reinforced infection prevention, rapid response capacity, and cross-border surveillance in South Sudan. They also urged neighboring countries without a vaccine for the Bundibugyo strain to implement border surveillance, contact tracing, and safe burial practices.
The study estimated the outbreak began spreading undetected in early April 2026 in a region already affected by conflict and limited healthcare access. It was officially identified about six weeks later.
Transparency
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