Study Finds Elevated Armed Conflict Risk Above Certain Drought Thresholds During El Niño in Parts of Central America and Southern Africa

A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on 2026-05-11 found statistically significant links between armed conflicts and climate impacts from El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole. The analysis of detailed climate and armed-conflict data from 1950 to 2023 showed that the risk of armed conflict generally increased during El Niño periods compared with La Niña periods.

Conflict risk did not rise gradually as climate impacts became stronger but became more likely only after drought conditions passed certain thresholds.

The relationship between drought thresholds and conflict risk changed depending on whether large national regions or smaller local areas were analyzed. Heightened conflict risk is associated mainly with El Niño-driven droughts in Central America and southern Africa. El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole are cyclical ocean temperature shifts that alter rainfall, storm, and drought patterns.

Human-caused global warming is intensifying many extreme impacts of El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole, scientists said. The new study treats these climate oscillations as a natural experiment spanning decades of conflict data. Inside Climate News reported that intense climate shocks have shaped societies for millennia, yet disentangling their effects from demographic changes, national histories and economic pressures has proved difficult.

Justin Mankin, an associate professor at Dartmouth College and principal investigator of the university’s climate modeling and impacts group, said drought is key because human well-being requires water above all else. “Dry conditions are innately more stressful,” Mankin stated in an email.

” Mankin added that prolonged dry conditions can undermine local economies and livelihoods, making recruitment for armed groups easier in already unstable regions.

He cited a 2019 study in Nature that determined socioeconomic development, state capability and intergroup inequality are more likely to drive conflict than climate. “What climate variability does is shift when and where existing vulnerabilities translate into violence,” Mankin stated.

He cautioned against broadly framing climate impacts as a security problem, which invites militarized responses to what should be development, governance and humanitarian problems.

Attributing conflict mainly to climate impacts shifts focus away from more important factors such as poor government planning, corruption and institutional failures, he added. Understanding the impacts from known modes of climate variability like El Niño provides a foothold for predictability in an otherwise chaotic climate system, Mankin stated.

With better forecasts, more rapid anticipatory humanitarian financing could target areas vulnerable to drought rather than waiting until lives are disrupted and people are displaced.

Sylvia Dee, head of the Climate and Water Lab at Rice University, said the climate patterns tracked in the study are part of a much larger Earth system that still holds surprises. “People have been saying climate change contributes to conflict for a long time,” Dee stated.

She noted that pinning down these connections requires collaboration across climate scientists, statisticians, political scientists and social scientists working directly with affected populations.

“I don’t have any doubt that it can be solved,” Dee stated. The researchers said the new paper represents a step toward integrating multiple fields to examine regional climate-driven conflicts. Inside Climate News reported that even studying a small slice of the puzzle demands such cross-disciplinary effort.