Study Forecasts 36% of Land Animal Habitats Facing Extreme Weather Exposure by 2085 Under Continued Warming

A study published in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution projects that over 36% of terrestrial animal habitats could be affected by extreme weather events like fire and flooding by 2085 if temperatures continue to rise worldwide. The forecasts, covering 33,936 terrestrial vertebrate species and 794 ecoregions, used climate impact projections and species habitat data to predict changes in exposure to droughts, heatwaves, river floods and wildfires for ecosystems around the world.

By 2050, 74% of current animal habitats on land will be exposed to heat waves if warming continues at the current rate, according to the study.

Additionally, 16% of current animal habitats on land will be exposed to wildfires by 2050, while 8% will face droughts and 3% will encounter river floods under the same scenario. The study indicates that 36% of the area within species’ ranges are projected to be exposed to droughts, heatwaves, river floods and wildfires by 2085.

Stefanie Heinicke, a postdoctoral researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), served as head author.

' A team of 18 international researchers conducted the study to gauge climate change's effect on global biodiversity. If the warming trend reverses in the latter part of the century, just 9% of animal habitats would experience droughts, heatwaves, river floods and wildfires by 2085, the study found.

Recent events illustrate these risks: a firefighting helicopter dropped water as the Palisades fire grew near the Mandeville Canyon neighborhood and Encino, California, on January 11, 2025.