Study Identifies Windows for Possible Extreme Solar Flares Through 2027

An international research team led by scientists at the National Autonomous University of Mexico published a study in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics that outlines periods of elevated probability for extreme solar eruptions. The study examined data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites collected between 1975 and 2025.

Researchers identified 37 S-class events, defined as flares exceeding X10 intensity, across prior solar cycles.

7 years and seven years to increased flare probability when both align in a positive phase. Machine-learning models applied to these cycles point to two elevated-risk intervals during Solar Cycle 25: mid-2025 through mid-2026, primarily in the sun’s southern hemisphere, and early-to-mid 2027, shifting toward northern latitudes.

Solar Cycle 25 reached its estimated maximum in October 2024, according to NOAA and NASA. Every cycle since the late 1970s produced at least one Earth-directed S-class flare except the current cycle, the study states.

An S-class flare could damage satellites, interfere with GPS signals, disrupt radio communications, and trigger large-scale electrical outages. The study notes that advance identification of high-risk windows could give satellite operators and power-grid managers one to two years of preparation time.

NASA completed the Artemis II mission, which carried four astronauts around the moon. Artemis III, planned to test docking procedures in Earth orbit, is scheduled for 2027, and Artemis IV, intended to land astronauts at the lunar south pole, is listed for 2028–2029.