Study Links USAID Aid Cuts to Increased Conflict in Africa

U.S. Agency for International Development programs. U.S. Days after President Donald Trump's inauguration, the administration issued a stop-work order that suspended nearly all of USAID's overseas programs.

The Science paper analyzed two global datasets tracking funding disbursements and violent conflict. 3 percent surge in armed battles after the shutdown. 3 percent in those regions. Austin Wright, a University of Chicago researcher and co-author of the paper, said the effects have been swift and destabilizing.

"There is nothing that we're aware of in recorded human history of the magnitude of that shutdown, in terms of ending a country's commitment at a global scale," said Wright.

Zia Mehrabi, a food security and climate change researcher at the University of Colorado Boulder, said USAID programming around food aid provided a critical lifeline to millions of women, children, and families in severe nutritional deficits. Outside experts cautioned that the findings are preliminary and may not capture the bigger picture.

Farming and agricultural markets are easily disrupted by conflict, and when conflict occurs food security worsens because it can limit communities' access to food. At the same time, deepening food insecurity in fragile political states contributes to social unrest.

Climate impacts then layer onto this fragility.