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Study Projects Human-Caused Warming to Reach 1.5°C Around 2030
An international group of researchers reports that human-driven warming will likely cross the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C threshold within four years. The finding is based on updated indicators tracking current warming trends and the remaining carbon budget.
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Human-caused warming reached 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025 and is projected to hit 1.5°C around 2030, according to a study published Thursday in Earth System Science Data. The study was produced by a consortium of 73 researchers from 17 countries.
It updates key indicators from the 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report to provide current data ahead of the next United Nations assessment expected in 2028 or 2029.
The remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C now stands at 130 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide. At current emission rates, that amount equals roughly three years of global output. The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, set 1.5°C as its most ambitious temperature limit. The new analysis indicates this threshold will be crossed within the next four years.
Researchers said the updated indicators are intended to inform climate talks scheduled in Bonn, Germany. The study marks the fourth consecutive annual update by the same research group.
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