Survey Finds No Rate Change Expected Through 2027 as Fed Removes Easing Bias

Respondents to the latest CNBC Fed Survey see no change to the federal funds rate at this week's meeting or at any meeting through 2027. The 32 economists, fund managers and strategists also expect the central bank to remove the easing bias from its statement, which has previously signaled that the next move would likely be a cut.

The incoming chairman will lead his first meeting amid higher inflation linked to tariffs and conflict with Iran. Survey participants said those factors have pushed any rate cuts beyond the forecast horizon and left the funds rate near its current 3.62 percent level through 2027.

Forecasters raised their 2026 U.S.

GDP growth projection to 2.2 percent and their 2027 forecast to 2.3 percent. They lowered the probability of recession to 25 percent from 33 percent in April and left unemployment expectations near the current 4.3 percent rate. Several respondents said a steady labor market should shift the central bank's focus toward inflation, which has exceeded its target for most of the past six years.

Fifty-nine percent of respondents said Fed officials speak too often, supporting the incoming chairman's earlier call for fewer public statements. At the same time, 59 percent expect news conferences after every meeting, and 53 percent favor eliminating the dot plot that shows individual rate projections.

Eighty-four percent view AI-related stocks as overvalued by an average of 21 percent, while 69 percent see the broader stock market as overpriced. The S&P 500 is projected to reach about 8,000 by 2027, a gain of roughly 5.5 percent from current levels.

Credit-market risk concerns eased, with 53 percent now describing system risk as somewhat elevated, down from 78 percent in March.