Syracuse University Projects First Budget Deficit in Years After Missing Enrollment Target

In a worst-case scenario where enrollment drops 15% between 2025 and 2029, the Fed projected annual closures would more than double. U.S. currently has around 4,000 colleges. Undergraduate enrollment already dipped 15% between 2010 and 2021, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.

A 17% decline in birth rates after 2007 translates to 576,000 fewer college-aged Americans between 2025 and 2029, according to RC Strategy research. 2% last fall, less than half the growth recorded in 2024, according to National Student Clearinghouse data. Graduate international enrollment declined nearly 6% last fall.

U.S. universities fell 20% year-on-year last spring, according to a NAFSA report published last month. The share of non-local students at public flagship universities rose an average 55% between 2002 and 2022, according to Brookings Institution research.

Out-of-state domestic enrollment at large flagship universities has held steady, but international freshmen have become a rarer presence. Last year Syracuse University offered last-minute scholarships to students who had yet to commit in a bid to boost enrollment.

The University of Arizona is intentionally lowering class sizes to improve academic performance and graduation rates while reducing scholarship expenses and national recruitment burdens.

7 million Americans between the ages of 25 and 64 intend to enroll in some type of higher education within the next two years. Sandy Baum, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute who researches higher education financing, said smaller institutions without significant endowments are most exposed.

“Most institutions don’t have significant endowments, but there are thousands of institutions—most of them you may never have heard of—that are tuition-dependent,” Baum told @FortuneMagazine.