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Texas Governor Abbott Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Hinojosa in Latest Polls

Recent surveys show Governor Greg Abbott ahead of Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa by four to six points. Prediction markets give Abbott an 87-88 percent chance of winning a fourth term in November.

Newsweek
1 source·May 27, 3:27 PM(2 days ago)·1m read
Texas Governor Abbott Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Hinojosa in Latest PollsNewsweek
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Texas Governor Greg Abbott leads Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa by four to six points in the two most recent public polls. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted May 22-23 showed Abbott at 48 percent and Hinojosa at 44 percent.

Abbott was first elected governor in 2014 and won reelection in 2018 and 2022. He is the longest-serving current governor in the United States. Hinojosa has served in the Texas House of Representatives since 2017. Both candidates won their party primaries in March without a runoff. Abbott previously won his three gubernatorial races by margins of 11, 13, and more than 20 points.

U.S. Senator John Cornyn in the GOP Senate primary runoff on Tuesday. Democratic state Representative James Talarico is the Democratic nominee for Senate. The same Public Policy Polling survey showed Talarico leading Paxton 45 percent to 38 percent.

Joshua Blank of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin said Abbott maintains a large financial advantage. Blank noted Hinojosa is not widely known statewide while Abbott is recognized by nearly all Texas voters.

The Barbara Jordan poll found Abbott leading among White likely voters 59 percent to 33 percent. Hinojosa led among Black likely voters 81 percent to 14 percent. The candidates were tied among Latino likely voters at 47 percent each. A separate Texas Public Opinion Research poll showed 56 percent of Latino voters supporting Hinojosa and 34 percent supporting Abbott.

Key Facts

Abbott lead
48-49 percent in two recent polls
Hinojosa support
43-44 percent in same polls
Prediction markets
87-88 percent chance Abbott wins
Latino voters
Hinojosa leads 56-34 percent in one poll

Story Timeline

4 events
  1. 2026-05-27

    Prediction markets showed Abbott with 87-88 percent chance of winning.

    1 sourceNewsweek
  2. 2026-05-22 to 2026-05-23

    Public Policy Polling survey gave Abbott 48 percent to Hinojosa's 44 percent.

    1 sourceNewsweek
  3. 2026-05-20

    Ken Paxton won the Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff.

    1 sourceNewsweek
  4. 2026-04-22 to 2026-05-06

    Barbara Jordan poll showed Abbott at 49 percent and Hinojosa at 43 percent.

    1 sourceNewsweek

Potential Impact

  1. 01

    Democratic performance in suburbs and among Latino voters will determine final margin.

  2. 02

    Abbott's fundraising advantage may limit Hinojosa's ability to close the gap.

  3. 03

    Split-ticket voting could occur between the governor and Senate races.

Transparency Panel

Sources cross-referenced1
Confidence score75%
Synthesized bySubstrate AI
Word count254 words
PublishedMay 27, 2026, 3:27 PM
Bias signals removed4 across 2 outlets
Signal Breakdown
Speculative 2Framing 1Amplifying 1

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