Tornado Outbreaks Surprise Forecasters After National Weather Service Staffing Cuts

Staffing cuts at the National Weather Service resulted in the cancellation of early morning weather balloon launches this spring. Forecasters then faced two tornado outbreaks that caught them by surprise. The National Weather Service had relied on data from weather balloons launched in the early morning hours to inform forecasts.

Without that information, meteorologists had less data to assess atmospheric conditions ahead of severe weather events. The outbreaks occurred this spring after the launches were discontinued. Federal staffing reductions contributed to the personnel shortages at the agency.

The cuts affected the number of available staff members needed to conduct the balloon launches on a consistent basis. As a result, the National Weather Service operated with reduced capacity during a period of active severe weather. The agency had previously used the balloon data to improve the accuracy of tornado warnings and forecasts.

Officials have not detailed specific changes to warning performance during the outbreaks. The events have prompted questions about the effect of reduced staffing on forecast reliability. Tornado outbreaks this spring caused damage in affected regions.

Forecasters worked to issue warnings with the available information despite the data gap from the canceled launches. The National Weather Service continues to monitor severe weather threats with its remaining resources.

Weather balloon launches provide critical measurements of temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction at various altitudes. The early morning launches had been a standard part of the agency's data collection routine. Their suspension this spring coincided with the period when the two tornado outbreaks occurred.

The National Weather Service has not announced plans to restore the launches. Staffing levels remain below previous totals following the federal reductions. Meteorologists continue to use satellite imagery, ground observations and computer models to compensate for the missing upper-air data.