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The national average price of regular gasoline climbed sharply over the past week to $4.56 per gallon, the highest level in four years, driven by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In California, prices exceeded $6 per gallon with one county reaching $7.28.
The GuardianThe national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline reached $4.56 on Wednesday, up 31 cents in the past week, according to AAA data cited by Fortune Magazine and BNO News. One California county saw prices hit $7.28 while the statewide average stood above $6.
The last planned oil tanker from the Middle East arrived in California this week. The vessel New Corolla delivered approximately 2 million barrels of crude oil from Iraq to Long Beach. It departed before the conflict began and was the final scheduled shipment to transit the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Los Angeles Times report cited in The Guardian.
California officials told state legislators on Tuesday that current supplies can meet demand for the next six weeks. The state imports about one-third of its crude from the Gulf region and will need to identify replacement sources. A professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, noted that tankers already at sea when the strait closed had buffered the immediate impact, but that pipeline of pre-conflict supply has now ended.
The California Energy Commission vice-chair had briefed lawmakers the previous day on the six-week supply window.
Crude oil, which accounts for roughly 51 percent of the cost of a gallon of gasoline in the United States, has climbed sharply. Benchmark crude reached as high as $112 per barrel in early April. Federal and state taxes make up about 17 percent of the pump price, refining and distribution another 31 percent.
California’s average price reached $6.16 while the national figure stood at $4.54 earlier in the week. Higher state taxes, stricter refining requirements and greater reliance on imported crude push California prices well above the U.S. average. Gas above $6 per gallon appeared at stations in Monterey Park on April 30.
Economic data indicate the increases have hit lower-income drivers hardest. After the war began, Americans with lower incomes reduced gasoline consumption yet still spent more at the pump, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Spot prices and retail prices followed crude lower during an earlier period of temporary optimism.
The director of global fuel retail at S&P Global Energy said retailers lowered pump prices in response. As fighting continued, however, prices reversed and resumed climbing.
The national average now exceeds levels seen in early May 2022. At that time prices continued rising through Memorial Day. Stock markets rose and oil prices fell on Wednesday after an announcement that a potential deal with Iran could reopen the strait to all traffic.
The vessels’ operators have not been publicly identified by the U.S. government in statements referenced across the sources. No publicly released evidence has documented the precise volume of replacement supply secured to date.
“There’s a fundamental shortfall that will exist globally or fundamental struggle to meet that demand that will drive up price. No matter what a government says or what any market person thinks, there is a true kind of upward pressure that’s being exerted on prices every day the Strait of Hormuz is constrained.”
Forecasts circulating on prediction markets project the national average could reach $5.30 before the end of the year.
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