U.S. Borrowing Needs Projected Above $2 Trillion In Fiscal 2026

Officials may need to borrow more than $2 trillion from private markets in fiscal 2026. Primary dealers surveyed in a Treasury presentation estimated privately-held net marketable borrowing at roughly $2.04 trillion in fiscal 2026. Borrowing needs are expected to remain above $2 trillion through fiscal 2028.

The same documents showed the Office of Management and Budget projecting a $2.065 trillion fiscal 2026 deficit. That compares with a $1.853 trillion deficit estimate from the Congressional Budget Office. The figures were released Wednesday. National debt stands near $39 trillion.

Financing costs have risen alongside elevated Treasury yields. Officials projected borrowing of $189 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 and $671 billion in the fourth quarter.

Management and Budget's deficit estimate for fiscal 2026 exceeds the Congressional Budget Office forecast by $212 billion. Both sets of projections reflect expectations of continued large annual shortfalls. These gaps drive the need for substantial new borrowing from markets in coming years.

Primary dealers anticipate that annual borrowing will stay above the $2 trillion threshold from fiscal 2026 through fiscal 2028. The estimates reflect anticipated government spending and revenue trends over that period.