U.S. Cattle Herd Hits 1950s Low as Screwworm Reaches Texas and Trade Talks with Mexico Begin

U.S. cattle herd has fallen to its lowest level since the 1950s while a screwworm outbreak that began in Mexico has now reached cattle in south Texas and New Mexico. Ground beef prices rose more than 20 percent between January 2025 and June 2026.

U.S. states. Young cattle imports from Mexico to the United States collapsed more than 80 percent in 2026, and overall live cattle imports fell more than 50 percent in 2025.

U.S. and Mexican trade negotiators met June 16-17, 2026, to review the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Canada is not participating in the current round. President Donald Trump stated before the talks that Washington may not renew the pact and may withdraw from it.

The USMCA replaced the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement and took effect in 2020. The agreement requires a joint review every six years and contains a 16-year sunset clause. All three countries must decide by July 1, 2026, whether to extend the deal another 16 years or shift to annual reviews until 2036.

1 million head of cattle from Mexico and Canada, valued at more than $3 billion. Those imports accounted for a small share of the 32 million cattle slaughtered domestically that year but helped stabilize supply. S.

3 billion. Canada ranked fourth at $874 million. Combined, Canada and Mexico exported more than $5 billion worth of beef to the United States in 2025. Cattle and beef products move across the three borders under the lower tariffs and harmonized rules established by the 1994 and 2020 agreements.

U.S. beef and fed cattle are shipped south to meet demand in Mexico. If the United States exits the USMCA, trade would fall under standard international rules.