U.S. June CPI Release Scheduled Tuesday at 8:30 A.M. EST

U.S. June consumer price index figures are scheduled for release Tuesday at 08:30 EST. @LiveSquawk reported that the headline print is widely expected to fall 0.1 percent month over month from the 0.5 percent increase recorded in May.

The projected decline would represent the softest monthly reading since June 2025 and the first negative print for the series since May 2020. -Iran ceasefire reached on 17 June. HSBC Global Economics Research estimates a 0.2 percent month-over-month decline in headline CPI, which would leave the annual rate at 3.8 percent.

The firm projects a 9.6 percent drop in motor fuel prices that would be partly offset by higher food and household energy costs. HSBC expects core CPI to rise 0. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 0.5 percent decline in used car prices along with smaller drops in new vehicle prices and motor vehicle insurance.

The bank also projects owners' equivalent rent to increase 0.23 percent and rent to rise 0.17 percent. Its overall forecast implies a 0.24 percent monthly increase in core PCE inflation. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Centre for Microeconomic Data survey published on 7 July showed short-term inflation expectations rising 0.2 percentage points to 3.7 percent.

Medium-term expectations also increased 0.2 percentage points to 3.3 percent while long-term expectations remained unchanged. FOMC minutes released on 8 July underscored the role of incoming data in shaping the rate outlook amid geopolitical tensions. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee less than two hours after the CPI release.