U.S. Murder Rate on Track for Lowest Since 1950s but Still Double Canada’s Level

The national murder rate is on track to reach its lowest level on record in 2026, according to crime data analyst Jeff Asher. Asher published the prediction in late May based on data he collects directly from about 600 police agencies for The Crime Index. That sampling shows murders dropped 18.7 percent in the first four months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.

All violent crime fell 6.4 percent over the same span. The FBI has published national murder numbers since the 1950s. Asher said the United States almost certainly had the lowest murder rate ever recorded in 2025.

He noted that CDC homicide data back to 1930 show a few years in the 1950s with slightly lower rates, but another large drop this year could make 2026 the lowest homicide rate on record as well.8 deaths per 100,000 in 2021, a 54 percent increase over the 2014 rate of 4.4 per 100,000. Local data illustrate the scale of the decline.

The King County Prosecuting Attorney's Office in Washington logged 384 shots-fired incidents and 22 killings in the first quarter of 2022. Those figures fell to 204 incidents and nine killings in the first quarter of 2026. Gary Ernsdorff, who supervises the Special Operations Unit in the King County prosecutor's office, said gang violence, drive-by shootings and armed robberies continue but numbers in each category are decreasing.

He attributed part of the improvement to a return to normal routines after the COVID-19 pandemic. Jerry Ratcliffe of the University of Pennsylvania linked the earlier spike to social upheaval after George Floyd's murder in 2020. LaMaria Pope of the Seattle-area nonprofit Choose 180 said the return of in-person programming and school has helped reduce violence among young people.