U.S. PCE inflation up 28.5 percent since February 2018
@KobeissiLetter reported cumulative U.S. PCE inflation reached 28.5 percent from February 2018 through March 2025. The cumulative increase exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target path by 11.1 percentage points over the same span.
forbes.comS. 5 percent since February 2018, reaching an all-time high. 4 percent cumulative increase.
The gap between actual and target inflation began widening in 2021 after large fiscal stimulus and near-zero interest rates in 2020 and 2021. PCE inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target for 60 consecutive months since April 2021. 5 percent, the highest level recorded since June 2023.
Key Facts
Story Timeline
3 events- 2021
Cumulative PCE inflation began exceeding the 2 percent target path.
1 source@KobeissiLetter - April 2021
PCE inflation first rose above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target.
1 source@KobeissiLetter - March 2025
Latest PCE reading reached 3.5 percent, highest since June 2023.
1 source@KobeissiLetter
Potential Impact
- 01
Consumer purchasing power continues to decline relative to 2018 levels.
- 02
Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for longer.
Transparency Panel
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