UAE Withdraws from OPEC, Plans Oil Production Expansion

The United Arab Emirates announced its formal withdrawal from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on May 1, 2026. OPEC consists of 12 core nations that coordinate crude oil production to manage global supply and prices. The group historically pumps roughly 40 percent of the world's oil and sits atop about 80 percent of proven oil reserves.

Abu Dhabi has been a member of OPEC since 1967. The UAE joined OPEC in the 1970s. The UAE is OPEC's third-largest producer. 41 million barrels per day in 2025.

91 million barrels per day in 2025. The UAE's oil production capacity is set to rise to approximately 5 million barrels per day by 2027. ADNOC announced in 2025 that it would spend around $150 billion to expand the country's oil infrastructure over the next five years.

The UAE began pursuing a similar capacity expansion in 2023. Rice's Baker Institute estimated in a 2023 paper that the UAE's spare capacity represented $3 billion per month of forgone income.

The global production deficit caused by the war in Iran is roughly 1 billion barrels thus far. Angola left OPEC in 2024. Qatar left OPEC in 2019. The UAE represented 12 percent to 14 percent of OPEC's total crude production prior to its departure announcement.

Saudi Arabia has a population of 35 million. World Bank estimates put Saudi per capita income at $35,000.

The UAE kept external surpluses amounting to roughly 13% of GDP in 2025. The IMF saw the fiscal breakeven oil price at $49 per barrel for the UAE in 2025.

The UAE joined the Abraham Accords in 2019. Hamas terrorist attacks occurred on October 7, 2023. BP reported above Wall Street expectation earnings for 1Q 2026.

Oil companies experienced significant production losses in the Middle East equal to about 5% of total company output. "It's pretty clear that the UAE has been diverging from OPEC’s leadership for a while now," Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting and an expert on energy and geopolitics, told The Dispatch.

"This has been coming to a head for some time," Kristian Ulrichsen, fellow for the Middle East at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, told The Dispatch.

" "What Saudi Arabia has been doing since 2016 in various ways, but really since 2023, has been to try to corral all of OPEC behind this policy of cutting production in order to keep prices higher," Gregory Brew, a historian of oil and analyst with Eurasia Group's Energy, Climate & Resources team, told The Dispatch.

" "Abu Dhabi wants to move that oil to market as soon as feasible," Jim Krane, a research fellow at the Baker Institute and one of the paper’s authors, told The Dispatch. " "This is entirely a question of the post-Iran war oil order," said Rory Johnston, an oil market researcher and Dispatch Energy contributor.

"When this conflict ends, it's going to take at least 12 months to restore local inventories," Wald said. " "There’s been a real change over the past few years," F. Gregory Gause, professor emeritus at Texas A&M University and an expert on Middle East affairs, told The Dispatch when asked about relations between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

"The real geopolitical differences between the Emirates and Saudi Arabia are not how they're playing the global powers," Gause said. " "The UAE is a much wealthier and more diverse economy than the rest of OPEC, which is made up of poorer petro-states where oil is the dominant economic force," Krane said.

"The UAE has bigger geopolitical ambitions and is seeking influence in Washington and other global capitals," Krane said.

" "The group’s ability to exercise market power over the global oil market is probably being undermined," Brew said. "This is a major blow to OPEC," Wald said. " "We could see that individual states become much more assertive in responding to put their interests first," Ulrichsen said.