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UAE Withdraws From OPEC
The United Arab Emirates announced its formal withdrawal from OPEC on May 1, 2026, citing production quota constraints and geopolitical differences with Saudi Arabia. The move positions the UAE to increase oil output once regional conflicts subside. Experts note implications for global oil markets and Middle East power dynamics.
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The United Arab Emirates announced its formal withdrawal from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on May 1, 2026. OPEC consists of 12 core nations that coordinate crude oil production to manage global supply and prices. The group historically pumps roughly 40 percent of the world's oil and sits atop about 80 percent of proven oil reserves.
Abu Dhabi has been a member of OPEC since 1967. The UAE joined OPEC in the 1970s. The UAE is OPEC's third-largest producer. 41 million barrels per day in 2025.
91 million barrels per day in 2025. The UAE's oil production capacity is set to rise to approximately 5 million barrels per day by 2027. ADNOC announced in 2025 that it would spend around $150 billion to expand the country's oil infrastructure over the next five years.
The UAE began pursuing a similar capacity expansion in 2023. Rice's Baker Institute estimated in a 2023 paper that the UAE's spare capacity represented $3 billion per month of forgone income.
The global production deficit caused by the war in Iran is roughly 1 billion barrels thus far. Angola left OPEC in 2024. Qatar left OPEC in 2019. The UAE represented 12 percent to 14 percent of OPEC's total crude production prior to its departure announcement.
Saudi Arabia has a population of 35 million. World Bank estimates put Saudi per capita income at $35,000.
The UAE kept external surpluses amounting to roughly 13% of GDP in 2025. The IMF saw the fiscal breakeven oil price at $49 per barrel for the UAE in 2025.
The UAE joined the Abraham Accords in 2019. Hamas terrorist attacks occurred on October 7, 2023. BP reported above Wall Street expectation earnings for 1Q 2026.
Oil companies experienced significant production losses in the Middle East equal to about 5% of total company output. "It's pretty clear that the UAE has been diverging from OPEC’s leadership for a while now," Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting and an expert on energy and geopolitics, told The Dispatch.
