UK Elections Deliver Fragmented Result with No Party Above 20% in National Projection

Reform UK led national vote projections after Thursday's elections across the UK but on a lower share than last year, according to BBC analysis that suggested a five-way split in how people across Great Britain might have voted had the whole country gone to the polls.

Neither Labour nor the Conservatives are predicted to have more than 20 percent of the vote following this year's elections. The projection of the Green vote now stands at 18 percent.

In Wales, Plaid Cymru won 43 seats in the Senedd but finished short of a majority. Reform UK came second in the Welsh Parliament with 34 seats while Welsh Labour finished third overall. Welsh Labour suffered its first national election defeat in Wales in over 100 years.

Welsh Labour leader and First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her seat. The Greens took two seats in the Senedd and the Liberal Democrats took one. The Senedd expanded from 60 to 96 seats in 2026 and the election used 16 new constituencies each electing six members by proportional representation.

Labour had held half of the seats after the last Senedd election in 2021. At Holyrood the SNP are the largest party but do not have enough seats for a majority. John Swinney retained his Perthshire North seat even as the SNP suffered some constituency losses to the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Labour.

Reform UK picked up its first seats in the Scottish Parliament and ended the counting tied for second place with Labour. The Scottish Green Party finished third in the Scottish Parliament election followed by the Conservatives in fourth and the Liberal Democrats in fifth. In England, Labour has lost control of more than 30 councils.