science
UK forecasts show mixed signals for late July and August
Long-range outlooks indicate a higher chance of changeable conditions with rain in parts of the country. Above-average temperatures and the possibility of further heatwaves remain in the outlook.
Jul 17, 9:05 PM·1m read1 source
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Computer models show low-pressure systems becoming more prominent, especially over Scotland and Northern Ireland, which would bring an increase in wet weather. The Azores high is expected to remain nearby, keeping conditions drier than they would otherwise be.
Temperatures are projected to stay above seasonal averages, particularly in England and Wales, where additional hot spells or heatwaves remain possible into early August.
Recent conditions The summer so far has featured multiple heatwaves.
A late-spring heatwave set a new May temperature record, followed by a June heatwave and a July heatwave that has lasted two weeks in places. By 15 July the country had already recorded more days above 30C than occurred during the whole of 1976. This summer is the first on record in which temperatures of 35C or above have been reached in three separate calendar months.
Contributing factors Persistent high pressure has allowed heat to build.
Dry ground has reduced evaporative cooling, and sea-surface temperatures around the country have been higher than normal. The Met Office states that human-induced climate change is making heatwaves more frequent and more intense, with the UK warming approximately 0.25C per decade since the 1980s.
