US Core Inflation Holds at 3% in February Ahead of Iran War, PCE Data Shows

The US Commerce Department released data on Thursday showing that core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, held at 3% annually in February. This measure excludes food and energy prices and provides insight into underlying price trends before the US and Israel initiated military action against Iran. 4%, aligning with economist forecasts.

8% annually, unchanged from January. 4% monthly rise. The data covers the period prior to the conflict, which has since driven energy prices higher, with oil exceeding $100 per barrel and gasoline prices rising over $1 per gallon.

spending increased 0.

6% gain. 4% rise. These figures indicate stable but softening demand entering the war period. 4%. 1%. 8% growth. > "February prices were in line but income was weak and GDP was revised down again.

“— David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, Thursday (CNBC)”

officials view core PCE as a key indicator for long-term inflation trends, targeting 2% overall. Inflation has exceeded this goal for five years, though policymakers anticipate a gradual decline. Minutes from the March Fed meeting, released Wednesday, indicated concerns over both inflation and employment, with a general inclination toward rate cuts later in the year.

The conflict has introduced uncertainty, with Fed officials describing the need to remain nimble amid potential inflation spikes from energy shocks. Markets anticipate the Fed holding rates steady, as the labor market has slowed but maintained a stable unemployment rate.

Initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 for the week, up 16,000 from the prior period and above the 210,000 estimate.