world
US Forecasters Say 81 Percent Chance El Niño Peaks Very Strong This Fall
US forecasters said the weather pattern gained strength over the past month and is highly likely to rank among the largest on record when it peaks between October and December. There is an 81 percent chance of a very strong event and a 97 percent chance it persists into early spring 2027.
Jul 9, 11:30 AM·1m read2 sources
Audio version
Tap play to generate a narrated version.
Developing·Limited corroboration so far. This page will refresh as more sources emerge.
The El Nino weather pattern strengthened over the past month and carries an 81 percent chance of becoming very strong when it peaks between October and December, US forecasters said Thursday. The US Climate Prediction Center placed the odds at 97 percent that the event will continue through early spring 2027.
Sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific stood 1.2 degrees Celsius above average on July 9.
0 degrees Celsius or more above the index value. The historic record tracked by the center dates to 1950.
Typical effects include drier conditions and drought in Australia, wetter winters in East Africa and the southern United States, and higher global temperatures. The previous El Nino, combined with human-induced climate change, helped make 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the warmest.
Transparency
How sources framed this
These outlets didn't split into competing frames — coverage was uniform.
CorroborationModerate · 2 sources
