US Intelligence Assesses Iran's New Supreme Leader Shaping Negotiations

US intelligence assesses that Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is playing a role in shaping war strategy and negotiations with the United States alongside senior Iranian officials. The reports indicate that precise authority within the government remains unclear following an attack that killed his father and several top military leaders.

Khamenei has not been seen in public since he sustained serious injuries in that attack at the beginning of the conflict. He was announced as Iran's new supreme leader days after the strike but the US intelligence community has not visually confirmed his whereabouts.

He communicates only in person or through couriers and does not use electronics. Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, told state media this week that he held a two-and-a-half-hour meeting with Khamenei. This marked the first reported in-person meeting between a top Iranian official and the new supreme leader.

US officials base their information about his status on communications from those who have met with him.

The war has degraded but not destroyed Iran's military capabilities. US intelligence previously reported that roughly half of Iran's missile launchers survived American strikes. A more recent assessment raised that figure to two thirds, partly because the ceasefire has allowed time to recover buried launchers.

A CIA report concluded that Iran can likely withstand up to four more months of the American blockade without complete economic destabilization. The Washington Post first reported on that CIA assessment. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly stopped amid recent exchanges of fire between US and Iranian forces despite the ceasefire.

Some uncertainty exists about whether individuals in Iran's power structure may be claiming access to Khamenei to advance their own agendas. One source familiar with the intelligence said there is evidence Khamenei is fairly removed from day-to-day decision making and only sporadically accessible.

As a result, senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials are running operations along with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. "There is no indication he is actually giving orders on any ongoing basis but nothing proving he is not," a second source familiar with the US intelligence assessments said, referring to Khamenei.

Questions about his health and standing have posed a challenge for the Trump administration as officials seek to determine who holds authority to negotiate an end to the conflict. The Trump administration continues to pursue a diplomatic resolution.

President Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely and Iran is reviewing the latest American proposal. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that Iran's system remains fractured and dysfunctional. " — US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (CNN) Prior US intelligence assessments had predicted that removing the prior supreme leader would be unlikely to topple the regime, with successors and the IRGC maintaining hardline control.