US-Iran Ceasefire Faces Strain Over Lebanon Inclusion and Strait of Hormuz Closure

Another report from Lebanon's Health Ministry placed the death toll at 303 from attacks on April 8. The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the attacks unequivocally, warning that continued violence could jeopardize the ceasefire and wider peace efforts.

analytics firm Kpler reported that no tanker has transited the strait into the Gulf of Oman since the ceasefire, down from an average of 138 ships per day before the conflict. Lloyd's List Intelligence analysis showed just three ships with links to Iran passing through since the announcement, with another three preparing to transit via a Tehran-approved route around Larak Island.

An estimated 1.0 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas are stored across 14 tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf. Iran recently implemented a vetting system allowing non-hostile ships to pass through its waters, with some companies paying transit fees; this was expected to continue under the ceasefire.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed retribution for attacks on Iran and stated that management of the strait would enter a new phase. Iran's Speaker of Parliament said regarding the ceasefire deal that time is running out. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center reported no incidents in the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Strait of Hormuz for the second consecutive day on April 10.

Energy prices are climbing amid concerns over minimal shipping through the strait.

April 9, the United Nations Security Council voted on a draft resolution encouraging states with commercial interests in the strait to coordinate navigation protection efforts and demanding Iran refrain from further attacks on shipping; China and Russia vetoed the measure.

The US Department of State will host a meeting next week to discuss ongoing ceasefire negotiations with Israel and Lebanon. The first ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Lebanon will be held at the US State Department in Washington. The Israeli Army expects rocket attacks from Lebanon in the coming hours.

President Trump said on April 10 he was very optimistic about a deal with Iran. Uncertainty over Lebanon's inclusion and control of the Strait of Hormuz represent major hurdles to the ceasefire's success.