US and Iran Reach Framework Deal; Shipping Through Strait Remains Limited

The White House and the Iranian regime agreed a framework deal to end hostilities more than three months after the United States and Israel began their war with Iran. President Donald Trump posted on social media that the agreement would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.

He stated on Monday that ships loaded with oil were starting to move out of the strait, which he described as totally safe, secure and pristine.

BBC Verify reviewed ship-tracking data showing only two vessels with active location trackers exited the Strait of Hormuz since Sunday: one bulk carrier and one tanker. The conflict closed the strait to most shipping traffic starting 28 February. Hundreds of vessels have been stuck in the Gulf due to the risk of sea mines or drone strikes.

Denmark's Maersk has five ships stuck in the Gulf because of the conflict. German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd has four ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. Normally about a fifth of the world's oil and LNG supplies flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

Pre-war levels included 26 daily crude oil tankers passing through the strait. President Donald Trump said the strait would open once the deal is signed on Friday. During the conflict, the price of Brent crude peaked at around $120 a barrel.

Before hostilities broke out, Brent crude traded just below $70 a barrel. 55 a barrel. NWE jet fuel traded at $1,033 per tonne after the conflict began, compared with $831 per tonne before the conflict and around $1,840 per tonne at its peak.

Roughly a third of traded fertiliser and major volumes of natural gas used for nitrogen-based fertiliser flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Yara stated the situation remains uncertain and farmers may require targeted support to manage ongoing volatility in the short term. Before the war, the Bank of England had been widely expected to cut interest rates this year.

Markets were pricing in two rate hikes by early 2027 just last week, according to Russ Mould of AJ Bell. Markets have now shifted to pricing one rate hike by December and potentially no change for at least the first half of 2027, according to Russ Mould of AJ Bell. Neil Shearing of Capital Economics said it will likely take some time for oil flows through the strait to return to pre-war levels.