Venezuela Faces Potential Economic Growth After Maduro's Removal

Venezuela could experience economic growth not seen in years after the U.S. military removed President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. His deputy, Delcy Rodríguez, remains in place, leading an interim caretaker government in a power-sharing arrangement with Washington.

This setup has led to the release of some political prisoners, considerations of exiles returning, investor interest, and countries reopening embassies in Caracas. The country has avoided immediate chaos following Maduro's removal. However, issues persist including poverty, hunger, corruption, repression, illegal detentions, and malfunctioning public services.

Key figures from the previous regime remain in positions within the armed forces, intelligence services, ministries, state-owned companies, regulatory agencies, and courts.

The Trump administration prioritizes Venezuela's economy, particularly its oil industry, over democratic reforms. Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, but production declined from over three million barrels per day in 1998 to about 900,000 barrels per day in 2024 due to mismanagement, corruption, and political interference at Petróleos de Venezuela.

Sanctions imposed by the United States in 2017 and directly on Petróleos de Venezuela in 2019 contributed to the decline. An example of infrastructure issues is the 2012 explosion at the Amuay refinery, which killed 48 people, injured over 150, and damaged more than 1,600 homes; the refinery now operates at reduced capacity.

Restoring oil production could require over $100 billion in investment and at least a decade, according to Francisco Monaldi, an oil expert at Rice University. Venezuela ranks last in the World Justice Project Rule of Law Index among 143 countries, complicating revival efforts.

January 2026, U.S.

President Donald Trump announced that the United States would manage Venezuela until a safe transition is ensured. U.S. officials stated that proceeds from Venezuelan oil sales, managed through U.S.-controlled accounts, would benefit both American and Venezuelan people, though the exact distribution remains undisclosed.

Within weeks, the Trump administration implemented a new regulatory framework for oil and gas activities. The National Assembly, presided over by Jorge Rodríguez, approved a law liberalizing the oil sector and removing restrictions from the 1976 nationalization.

Oil production may not return to 3 to 3.5 million barrels per day from the late 1990s and early 2000s, but reserves, geology, technology, capital access, and U.S. supervision could drive growth.

The Trump administration is also reviving Venezuela's mining sector, which includes large gold reserves and deposits of bauxite, iron ore, coal, and critical minerals. In March 2026, U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum led a delegation of over two dozen mining executives to Caracas.

Jorge Rodríguez pledged to accelerate approval of a new mining law to liberalize the sector and reduce barriers. Venezuela's state gold mining company, Minerven, signed a U.S.-backed agreement to sell 650 to 1,000 kilograms of gold bars to international traders supplying American refineries.

revival through oil, mining, investment, and diaspora return could destabilize the political transition if institutions remain weak and gains are uneven. Venezuelans hold expectations for improvement, and failure to deliver could lead to chronic political instability, according to Moisés Naím.

“Many Venezuelans have great expectations for what the future might hold. Should the state fail to deliver, it could plunge the country into chronic political instability," writes Moisés Naím. Ensuring economic recovery benefits all requires political recovery, including constraints on executive power and free and fair elections.”