Violence Escalates in Nigeria as Elections Approach, Jihadist Groups Expand

This count includes civilians, state forces, other armed groups, and jihadists. In Borno state, more than 500 civilians were reportedly killed by jihadist groups in 2025, compared to 299 in 2024, according to ACLED.

The senator attributed part of the violence increase to revenge attacks following a state of emergency declared in November, which intensified military operations. A retired director of Nigeria's domestic intelligence agency stated that attacks tend to surge ahead of elections and noted that the government's efforts to halt the violence remain to be evaluated.

U.S. President Donald Trump has criticized Nigerian authorities for insufficient protection of Christians, a perspective that experts say oversimplifies the situation where civilians of various religions are affected. This criticism has led to increased arms deals, intelligence sharing, and the deployment of U.S. troops for training missions in Nigeria.

Since 2019, Nigeria's military strategy has involved concentrating soldiers in fortified super camps, leaving rural areas vulnerable. Jihadist groups, such as Islamic State West Africa Province, have adapted by using night-vision equipment and drones to attack garrison towns successfully.

The government has implemented reforms, including the creation of a new Forest Guard service and an order to reassign police from private security duties for VIPs. However, an Abuja-based researcher stated that the police reassignment policy has only been implemented on paper.

A spokesman for the president did not respond to requests for comment.

Analysts have warned that two major jihadist groups from the Sahel region are establishing themselves in western Nigeria. Videos emerged earlier this month showing militants from these groups fighting each other in Kebbi state. The groups have not officially claimed the conflict, though such inter-jihadist clashes are rarely announced.

A researcher with the Soufan Centre stated that these groups can operate freely in the border areas of Niger, Nigeria, and Benin. The researcher noted that one group appears to be strengthening its presence in northwest Nigeria to consolidate links with another jihadist faction in the northeast.