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War Game Shows South Korea and Europe Withhold Aid in Taiwan Crisis
A closed-door simulation run by a European think tank in Seoul examined responses to a dual-theater crisis involving Taiwan and the Euro-Atlantic region. The exercise concluded that South Korea would likely remain neutral and European countries would be unable to provide meaningful support.
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A European think tank conducted a closed-door crisis simulation in Seoul to examine how a dual-theater crisis could affect responses to a Chinese move on Taiwan. The European Values Center for Security Policy ran the war game last year with 50 participants including diplomats, officials, think tankers, academics, business representatives and politicians.
Players examined gray zone scenarios involving Chinese and Russian operations against Taiwan and EU/NATO countries. The simulation found that the magnitude of a Taiwan crisis would be amplified by the hostile geographic axis formed by China, Iran, Russia and North Korea.
The war game found that during the early phase of a China-led escalation around Taiwan, China’s interest would be to keep South Korea out of a U.S.-led alliance. Beijing would likely offer economic benefits to Seoul to stay neutral, given South Korea’s dependency on China for coal, critical minerals and clean-energy technologies.
South Korea exported $130 billion worth of goods to China last year, versus $123 billion to the United States. Imports showed a wider gap, with South Korea purchasing $141 billion from China versus $73 billion from the United States.
The simulation concluded that European countries would be unable to provide meaningful support in a Taiwan crisis due to simultaneous pressures in the Euro-Atlantic region. The center released its findings through a briefing in Seoul this month and a report published by Germany’s Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom.
