Western Nations Implement Health Security Measures

The current hantavirus outbreak aboard a cruise liner docked off the Canary Islands has further underscored the need for preparedness. A major war or deliberate withholding of drugs by supplier nations could create acute shortages, with armed forces competing against civilians for limited medicines and supplies.

The EU Critical Medicines Act passed overwhelmingly by the European Parliament in January. On May 12, the EU Council and European Parliament agreed on a revised version of the bill expected to be signed within weeks. The legislation will not bring all medicine production back to Europe.

Stadig explained that Europeans have accepted generics will largely continue to be produced in Asia, but the act aims to manufacture more critical medicines on European soil at 20 to 40 percent higher costs.

“The Europeans seem to have accepted that generics will be produced in Asia, but with the Critical Medicines Act, we’d produce more of those critical medicines on European soil at higher prices.”

it imposed a 15 percent tariff on the EU including pharmaceuticals. In September President Donald Trump announced a planned 100 percent tariff on imports of branded or patented pharmaceutical products starting Oct. 1, exempting only companies building U.S. manufacturing plants, though the threat was not fully implemented before being repeated last month.

Stadig observed that this strategy has mostly hit branded pharmaceuticals made in Europe while generics remain in Asia due to economies of scale. The United States is taking a more promising approach in biomedical innovation, biotechnology and medical artificial intelligence by using government funds to compete with China.

Chinese share of the global pipeline of new innovative molecules has grown from 4 percent in 2014 to one-third today according to ING estimates.

Energy and Renewables Disruptions

War in the Middle East has reshaped near-term energy market expectations with implications extending beyond hydrocarbons. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz affects LNG imports, oil imports and spot gas-dependent economies particularly in Europe and Asia.

Rystad Energy reported that renewable energy projects across the Middle East now face delays of three to 12 months while solar imports into Gulf markets have collapsed amid maritime disruption and cost pressures. Higher oil and LNG prices are expected to strengthen the long-term case for Gulf states to deploy renewables domestically despite short-term setbacks.

The combination of conflict proximity, supply chain vulnerability, capital diversion and institutional resilience will determine the pace of renewables deployment in key Middle Eastern markets. The crisis simultaneously delays active renewable pipelines while reinforcing medium to long-term strategic commitment to the energy transition.

Undoing decades of globalization-built supply chains and specializations will not be quick or easy. Braw concluded that in a tense world, nations with close and respectful relations with others will hold a distinct advantage as they work to bolster health security against the intertwined threats of war, pandemics and supply shocks.