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World Meteorological Organization Updates El Niño Forecast to Strong
The United Nations weather agency updated its outlook July 3, 2026, to predict a strong El Niño developing rapidly in coming months. Conditions have already emerged in the Equatorial Pacific, with models showing high agreement on intensity.
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The World Meteorological Organization raised its forecast July 3, 2026, for a strong El Niño to emerge rapidly in the coming months. Rappler reported that El Niño conditions have already emerged in the Equatorial Pacific. Forecast models show remarkable agreement that the current event will be strong, WMO scientist Alvaro Silva said.
In early June the agency had projected only a moderate or possibly strong El Niño, but recent data increased its confidence. The WMO said it could revise the forecast upward later in the summer if evidence points to a very strong event. Seasonal forecasts indicate drier than normal conditions across Central America, the Caribbean, North and South America, and parts of Indonesia and Southeast Asia during the monsoon season.
El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and typically lasts nine to 12 months. Silva said effects will be felt in different regions until the end of the year and into 2027. Europe recorded its worst heatwave between June 20 and 28, 2026, with the extreme temperatures almost certainly driven by climate change, scientists said.
