Zogby Poll Shows JD Vance Leading Hypothetical 2028 Matchups, Though Earlier Survey Had Ocasio-Cortez Ahead

A Zogby Analytics poll released in July 2026 showed Republican Vice President JD Vance ahead of Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom in hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups.

The online survey of 1,003 likely U.S. voters, conducted July 1 to July 4 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, found Vance at 45 percent against Ocasio-Cortez at 37.6 percent.

Vance also led Newsom 45.1 percent to 38.1 percent. Republican Secretary of State Marco Rubio posted narrower leads in the same survey. Rubio received 40.3 percent to Newsom's 36.2 percent and 39.2 percent to Ocasio-Cortez's 38.3 percent.

Between 17 percent and 23 percent of respondents selected "not sure" across the matchups. The poll applied a likely-voter screen and demographic weighting based on census data, voter registration, and exit polls. A June 2026 survey by the Public Sentiment Institute had found Ocasio-Cortez ahead of Vance by nearly nine points.

Aggregated polling data has shown fluctuating results between Vance and the Democratic candidates. No candidate has officially declared for the 2028 race.