Analysis Warns of Risks in Timing of Venezuela's Upcoming Elections

Venezuela is set to hold presidential elections in 2024. International observers have called for conditions that ensure transparency and inclusivity.

A scholar addressed the election timeline in a Foreign Affairs article. The primary risk lies not in the failure to conduct elections, but in holding them too soon without adequate reforms. According to the scholar, this approach could allow the government to portray the results as evidence of democratic progress.

"The real danger is not that Venezuela will fail to hold elections, but that it will hold them too..." — Foreign Affairs

The opposition faces significant barriers. Meanwhile, the ruling party holds a majority in the National Assembly, influencing electoral oversight.

Sanctions since 2017 target the administration over alleged corruption and human rights abuses, contributing to hyperinflation and shortages affecting citizens. The 2018 election, boycotted by much of the opposition, saw the incumbent secure a majority of the vote amid reports of irregularities.

Stakes are high for the 2024 vote, as it could determine the direction of oil revenues, which account for a large portion of exports. Affected parties include the population grappling with poverty, and regional neighbors hosting Venezuelan migrants. International bodies have offered to monitor the process if invited.

Next Steps The government has invited observers from allies, while excluding others.

Opposition leaders plan to challenge candidacy bans through legal avenues and international appeals. Policy, including sanctions relief, and migration flows to neighboring countries.