finance
Bubblemaps Reports 80 High-Accuracy Bets on Polymarket Ahead of U.S. Iran Actions
Bubblemaps analysts identified 80 bets on Polymarket with a 98 percent win rate on U.S. military actions against Iran. The findings prompted renewed calls for legislation restricting war-related prediction market contracts.
May 21, 11:38 AM·1m read1 source
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U.S. military actions against Iran. The bets were placed in the days before the Feb. 28 surprise attacks, the removal of Iran's supreme leader, and the announcement of a ceasefire. Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman said the accuracy could not be explained by luck. U.S. military operations.
Vaiman said the accounts also placed smaller losing bets on Feb. 20, possibly to avoid attention. He added that civilians reportedly checked Polymarket during the Iran strikes to decide whether to sleep in bunkers. U.S. government. He noted the data may indicate someone with an unfair informational advantage.
Legislative Response Rep.
Mike Levin said on X that the insider trading problem with prediction markets is bigger than previously known. He and Sen. Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act to ban contracts on war. Polymarket announced a partnership with Chainalysis two weeks before the Bubblemaps findings to add oversight to its platform.
The company has stated it maintains strict insider trading rules and uses AI-powered surveillance and blockchain forensics to identify suspicious activity. Vaiman said prediction markets could be used as intelligence tools. He noted a government could place bets to create a false signal and mislead adversaries.
