prediction-markets
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usethebitcoin.comPrediction markets draw young male users seeking fast returns
Roughly 40 percent of men ages 18 to 34 use prediction markets, an April Navigator Research survey found. Kalshi reports that three-quarters of its four million active users are male and six in ten fall between 18 and 34.
CoinDeskQuantitative Trading Firms Build Dedicated Prediction Market Desks
DRW, Wintermute and IMC have posted job listings for traders focused on prediction markets. The firms seek staff to monitor prices across platforms and exploit short-term pricing gaps rather than forecast event outcomes.
info.gov.hkPolymarket dispute resolution faces trader review over linked accounts
A review of Polymarket disputes found that accounts deciding outcomes were tied to bets in the same market in nearly 20 percent of cases. The findings have prompted traders to examine how resolutions are reached.
SemaforKalshi asks paid influencers to delete posts on Los Angeles mayoral election
Kalshi directed some paid influencers to remove X posts that questioned the integrity of the Los Angeles mayoral primary. The posts promoted prediction market odds while suggesting late mail-in ballots were being counted unfairly.
inquisitr.comHouse Administration Committee Chair Works on Bill to Ban Lawmakers from Election Prediction Market Bets
Rep. Bryan Steil said he is drafting legislation that would prohibit current and former federal lawmakers and candidates from betting on elections and policy outcomes on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The measure would be attached to a separate bill already approved by…
BenzingaPolymarket CMO Paid Over $2.5M via Personal PayPal to Influencers Who Promoted Platform on X
A Politico investigation published June 5, 2026, found Matthew Modabber transferred at least $350,000 to content creators between January 2025 and February 2026. Total transfers from the account exceeded $2.5 million.
benzinga.comPolymarket Executive Paid Hundreds of Thousands to Influencers Across Political Spectrum
A senior executive at the prediction market platform sent hundreds of thousands of dollars to social media influencers. One recipient said the company supplied posts and directed promotion of specific bets.
SemaforSpanish Soccer Club Hedged Relegation Risk With Multimillion-Dollar Kalshi Bet, Then Won Final Game to Stay in La Liga
Owners of a La Liga club facing relegation bet against their own team on Kalshi. The club won its final match 1-0 and stayed in the top tier.
cryptoslate.comKalshi Receives Regulatory Approval for Crypto Perpetual Futures
Kalshi is testing a new interface that lets high-volume traders track volumes, order books, and multiple positions in one view. The product is in alpha testing and has no announced launch date.
Polymarket Resolves May Bitcoin-Sale Contract as No, June Contract as Yes After UMA Vote on Disclosure Date
UMA token holders voted that Strategy's June 1 disclosure date determined contract resolution. The May 31 market resolved No and the June 30 market resolved Yes.
forbes.comPolymarket Cuts Paid Ties With George Santos
The prediction platform is terminating its contract after Kalshi flagged trades on whether Santos would attend the State of the Union. Federal regulators have opened an investigation into possible insider trading.
NewsweekFormer Representative Denies Insider Trading Allegations After Prediction Market Referral
A former member of Congress issued a statement denying insider trading claims after an online prediction platform referred his trading activity to federal authorities. The matter involves bets placed on attendance at an upcoming address.
forbes.comSantos Says He Will Attend State of the Union; Kalshi Refers His Bets to DOJ and CFTC
Kalshi referred former Rep. George Santos to federal authorities after detecting suspicious trades ahead of President Donald Trump’s Feb. 24 State of the Union address. The platform also reported the trades to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
New York PostDOJ Investigates Former Rep. Santos Over Kalshi Bets on State of the Union Attendance
Federal authorities are examining whether the former New York congressman placed bets on a prediction market about his own presence at President Trump's February address. The inquiry centers on possible insider trading on the Kalshi platform.
winnipegfreepress.comGeorge Santos Bets Against Attending State of the Union; Polymarket Cuts Ties, CFTC Probes Kalshi
The prediction platform terminated its contract after Santos placed wagers on Kalshi about his own attendance at the February 24 State of the Union address. Federal regulators opened an insider-trading investigation.
BenzingaGeorge Santos Bets on Attending State of the Union, Wins on Kalshi; No Federal Probe
George Santos placed a bet on Kalshi that he would not attend President Trump's February State of the Union address after publicly stating he would be present. Rival platform Polymarket ended its paid influencer contract with Santos over the allegations.
ABC NewsFederal Referral Made After George Santos Bets on His Own Schedule on Kalshi
U.S. officials are examining whether George Santos placed bets on a prediction market about his own attendance at the February State of the Union address. The inquiry centers on possible insider trading on the Kalshi platform.
ABC NewsGeorge Santos Bets on Kalshi He Would Attend Trump Speech; DOJ Examining Possible Insider Trading
Officials are examining whether George Santos placed bets on a prediction market using non-public information about his own attendance at a February address.
thehindubusinessline.comGalaxy Digital Launches OTC Prediction Markets Service, Shares Fall 6% After $10M CLARITY Act Trade
Galaxy Digital began over-the-counter trading of prediction market contracts for institutional clients on June 2, 2026. The firm also completed a $10 million trade with hedge fund Arca linked to the proposed CLARITY Act.
nypost.comPrediction Markets Grow in Popularity as Accuracy Compared to Experts
Prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi have increased in use over recent months. Researchers are examining how their forecasts compare with those of subject-matter experts.
coindesk.comPolymarket Bitcoin Sale Market Faces Dispute Over Deadline
A $15 million Polymarket prediction market is in dispute after Strategy disclosed its first bitcoin sale. Questions have arisen over whether trades executed between May 26 and May 31 meet a May 31 deadline.
wealthmanagement.comPrediction Market Shows Democrats Favored to Win U.S. House Majority
A prediction market platform reported that Democrats hold an advantage in contracts tied to the November midterm elections. The assessment comes with roughly five months remaining until voters decide control of the chamber.
thenation.comPolymarket Bettor Nets $1.15 Million Profit on Champions League Final
A single Polymarket account placed $10.44 million in wagers across three outcomes for the final match. The account realized a net profit of $1.15 million after the match concluded.
BenzingaWintermute Begins Quoting Markets on Event Contracts
Wintermute, a London-based trading firm handling over $3.5 trillion in annual volume, announced it will provide liquidity on event contracts. The move follows growth in prediction market volume to $60 billion this year.
CoinDeskMinnesota Enacts Ban on Prediction Markets; Kalshi Sues
Kalshi filed a federal lawsuit against Minnesota seeking to stop enforcement of a new state law that will criminalize operating and advertising prediction market platforms starting August 1. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a similar motion on May 19.
thehindubusinessline.comPrediction Markets Show Shifts in Los Angeles Mayoral Primary
Betting markets indicate changes in probabilities for the June 2 primary. Incumbent odds have declined while one challenger has gained ground.
Substrate placeholder — needs reviewPolymarket Traders See 57 Percent Chance of U.S.-Iran Peace Deal by July 2026
Betting markets show declining odds for a permanent peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Traders on Polymarket currently assign a 57 percent probability to such a deal being reached by July 31, 2026.
app.buzzsumo.comKalshi Launches American Power Index Tracking Political Control
Prediction market platform Kalshi introduced a new index that combines congressional and presidential control with market forecasts. The measure produces a single score ranging from +50D to +50R.
SemaforSemafor Column Questions Purpose of Prediction Markets and Retail Trading Products
A Semafor Business column examines whether current retail trading products serve broad public needs. The piece contrasts prediction markets and leveraged funds with traditional index products and utility hedging practices.
BenzingaPrediction Markets Generate $1B in Taxable Activity
The American Gaming Association estimates states and tribes have lost over $1 billion in tax revenue to prediction market platforms. Association president and CEO Bill Miller said the platforms function as unregulated sports betting and called the CFTC a rogue agency.
Prediction market bets on next companies for U.S. government equity stakes
Bettors on Polymarket have placed wagers on which firms the U.S. government may next acquire equity positions in. The administration has already taken stakes worth tens of billions of dollars in several public companies.
thestreet.comPolymarket Traders Price 83-84% Chance of Bitcoin Hitting $90,000 Before $70,000
Prediction markets now assign an 83-84% probability that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 before climbing back above $90,000. The assessment comes from Polymarket and is being tracked by multiple crypto-focused accounts.
pymnts.comPrediction market traders mostly lose money, opinion column states
An opinion piece argues that most participants in prediction markets lose money and that this outcome is a normal feature of such platforms.
citizen.co.zaDemocratic Odds in Maine Senate Race Fall on Prediction Markets
Betting markets lowered the implied probability that a Democrat will win Maine's U.S. Senate seat. Public polls still show the likely Democratic nominee ahead of the Republican incumbent.
Abc NewsGoogle Employee Charged With Using Inside Information to Bet on Search Trends
Federal prosecutors unsealed a criminal complaint Wednesday charging a Google software engineer with using confidential company data to place bets on a prediction market platform. The employee allegedly profited more than $1 million before his arrest in New York.
BenzingaKalshi Adds Art Auction Contracts to Prediction Market Platform
Kalshi introduced event contracts tied to art auction prices on Tuesday. The new markets cover individual lot sales and annual records at major houses. Traders can now wager on whether any work exceeds current benchmarks.
abcnews.go.comHouse Oversight Chairman Opens Investigation Into Prediction Market Trading
House Oversight Chairman James Comer announced an investigation into whether traders on prediction markets used nonpublic information to profit. The inquiry follows reporting by FOX.
CoinDeskPresident Trump says CFTC should keep exclusive authority over prediction markets
President Trump posted on Truth Social that the CFTC must retain exclusive authority over prediction markets. The statement follows lawsuits between the agency and several states over regulatory jurisdiction.
South China Morning PostIndonesia Blocks Polymarket Access Over Online Gambling Rules
Indonesia's communications and digital ministry blocked the predictions platform Polymarket after it hosted bets on the end of President Prabowo Subianto's term. The ministry classified the site as an online gambling service that violates Indonesian law.
BenzingaArthur Hayes Says Prediction Markets Should Allow All Information
Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom Fund, stated that prediction markets should not restrict insider information. He argued that prices should reflect all available data except in cases of theft or fraud.
jpost.comPolymarket Shows Bennett Ahead of Netanyahu in Israeli Election Odds
A prediction market platform reports Bennett at 40 percent and Netanyahu at 36 percent for the next Israeli election. More than $11.3 million has been wagered on the outcome, with the market scheduled to close December 31, 2026.
finance.yahoo.comPolymarket shows 75 percent chance Bitcoin falls to $70,000 before rising to $90,000
A prediction market platform recorded a 75 percent probability that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 before climbing to $90,000. The figures come from trading activity on Polymarket.
CoinDeskHouse Oversight Committee Opens Insider Trading Probe Into Prediction Markets
The House Oversight Committee is investigating Kalshi and Polymarket after concerns that government employees may have used nonpublic information to profit on event contracts. Chairman James Comer sent letters Friday requesting internal records on identity verification and tradin…
usethebitcoin.comCompanies Invest in Prediction Markets Despite Regulatory Uncertainty
States and the federal government are disputing regulatory authority over prediction markets. Companies including Flutter Entertainment, DraftKings, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood have stated they will continue expanding their platforms.
CoinDeskPolymarket Reports $520,000 Drained From Polygon Smart Contracts
Blockchain investigator ZachXBT reported that more than $520,000 was moved from two Polymarket smart contracts on the Polygon network. Polymarket said the incident involved a private key compromise of an internal operations wallet and that user funds and market resolutions remain…
english.elpais.comPolymarket Seeks Government Approval for Prediction Markets in Japan
Polymarket is lobbying Japanese officials to authorize prediction markets by 2030. The company aims to secure regulatory clearance for its platform in the country.
webpronews.comPolymarket Contract Shows Signs of Exploitation With Over $660K Taken
Blockchain monitor @lookonchain reported that Polymarket's contract appears to be exploited. More than $660,000 has been removed so far according to the same report.
reason.comMinnesota Law Bans Prediction Markets and Criminalizes Participation
Minnesota enacted a law that prohibits the operation and use of prediction markets within the state. The measure makes it a felony to create, control, operate, support, or advertise such platforms.
ibtimes.co.ukCFTC Sues Six States Over Prediction Market Regulation
Sixteen states are in legal proceedings with prediction market platforms. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sued six states to assert exclusive federal jurisdiction over event contracts.
CoinDeskBubblemaps Reports 80 High-Accuracy Bets on Polymarket Ahead of U.S. Iran Actions
Bubblemaps analysts identified 80 bets on Polymarket with a 98 percent win rate on U.S. military actions against Iran. The findings prompted renewed calls for legislation restricting war-related prediction market contracts.
CoinDeskPolymarket Files to Offer Parlay Contracts on U.S. Sports Events
Prediction market platform Polymarket filed with the CFTC to list combinatorial outcome contracts that resolve only if every leg of an underlying contract settles to the specified outcome. The filing states the contracts would be available no earlier than May 21, 2026.
Washington ExaminerCFTC Sues Minnesota to Block Prediction Market Ban
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed suit Tuesday to stop Minnesota from enforcing a new law that would criminalize operating or advertising prediction markets starting August 1. The federal regulator argues the state law conflicts with its exclusive authority over such…
SemaforHouse Financial Services Chairman Says Congress Should Wait on Prediction Market Rules
Chairman French Hill said his committee is educating lawmakers on existing oversight of prediction markets by the CFTC and SEC. He said court cases between states and the Trump administration should play out first.
thehindubusinessline.comPrediction Markets Raise Questions on Investing Versus Gambling Distinction
Prediction markets allow users to bet on election outcomes and other events. Congress may need to clarify regulatory boundaries between these platforms and traditional gambling.
catholicnewsagency.comSenator Introduces Amendment to Ban Government Officials From Prediction Market Trading
Senator Elissa Slotkin introduced an amendment on Tuesday to prevent insider trading by U.S. government officials on prediction markets. The proposal follows reports of large profits from bets on U.S. military actions in Iran and Venezuela.
manilatimes.netPolymarket Adds Prediction Markets on Private Companies With Nasdaq Data
Polymarket has launched event contracts on private-company milestones including valuations and IPO timing for firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic. Nasdaq Private Market will supply the resolution data and release valuation figures publicly at no cost.
manilatimes.netPolymarket Adds Prediction Markets for Private Company Valuations
Polymarket launched prediction markets on Tuesday allowing users to trade contracts tied to private company valuations, IPO plans and secondary activity. The platform partnered with Nasdaq Private Market to offer the new service.
BenzingaMinnesota Enacts First Statewide Felony Ban on Prediction Markets
Minnesota became the first state to criminalize prediction markets with a new law that takes effect August 1. The Trump administration filed suit within 24 hours, challenging the statute's reach over platforms, data providers, and sports leagues.
thehindubusinessline.comKalshi Predicts Wider Use of Prediction Markets in Finance
Kalshi Legal Counsel Valeria Vouterakou said prediction markets are gaining institutional adoption and platform integrations. The company cited links with Interactive Brokers and traditional exchanges as evidence of mainstreaming.
dailyexcelsior.comCongress Considers Bills Targeting Campaign Fund Use in Prediction Markets
Lawmakers have introduced more than a dozen bills this year addressing prediction market platforms. One measure under preparation would bar the use of campaign funds for betting on such platforms.