Topic
prediction-markets
60 stories related to this topic, newest first.
CoinDeskfinance5 hrs ago
Polymarket Shows 43% Chance Clarity Act Passes in 2026 After Unverified Ethics Reports
Traders lifted the implied probability that the Clarity Act passes in 2026 to 43 percent on July 21. The increase followed unverified reports that President Trump accepted an ethics provision. Bitcoin rose near $66,300 while ether and XRP each gained about 4 percent.
New York Postbusiness20 hrs ago
Kalshi Attorneys Alerted Prosecutors to Polymarket’s U.S. Access Before FBI Raid on CEO’s Apartment
Kalshi lawyers detailed Polymarket access issues to Manhattan prosecutors ahead of the November 2024 search of Shayne Coplan's apartment. The New York Post reported the meetings as part of the companies' ongoing rivalry.
deadline.comtechnology2 days ago
Prediction Markets Hit 27% of U.S. Sports-Betting Volume During World Cup as Sportsbooks Handle Most Wagers
Prediction-market platforms recorded trading volumes equal to 27 percent of legal U.S. sports-betting activity during the World Cup, up from 9 percent at the start of the year. Kalshi doubled its prior peak volume and led in daily app users over DraftKings and FanDuel.
cnbc.comsports2 days ago
Kalshi Gains 3 Million Users During World Cup but Sees Lower Trading on Non-Match Days
The prediction market platform ran stadium ads, celebrity spots and an OpenAI integration during the tournament. Volumes rose sharply on match days while the company positioned itself for post-event trading.
The Independentpolitics2 days ago
Florida Lawmaker Denies Allegation of Tipping Vance Pick and Files Complaint Over Report
U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida rejected claims that she disclosed Donald Trump’s choice of JD Vance as running mate during a 2024 lunch. The allegation prompted a Commodity Futures Trading Commission review and follows a separate case involving a White House teleprompter…
Engadgetworld4 days ago
France Orders Block on Prediction Market Polymarket
France's national gaming authority directed internet providers to block access to Polymarket on July 17. The move follows a November 2024 ban on financial transactions to the site and rising visits from French addresses.
urbanmilwaukee.comworld4 days ago
Prediction Markets on Los Angeles Wildfires and Paris Heat Drew Bets and Regulatory Scrutiny
Cnn reported that platforms including Polymarket accepted wagers on acres burned and containment dates during the January 2025 Los Angeles fires. The Eaton fire killed 19 people and destroyed Kaitlyn Trudeau’s grandfather’s home. Experts and officials raised concerns about financ…
riotimesonline.comsports4 days ago
Kalshi Reports Over $25 Billion in World Cup Wagers While Facing More Than 20 Federal Lawsuits
The prediction market platform reported record sports betting volume during the tournament. Traditional sportsbooks and states are challenging its regulatory status in multiple courts.
Forbesscience4 days ago
Kalshi Launches Prediction Markets on Drug Trials and FDA Approvals
Kalshi opened new markets on July 16 allowing bets on Phase 3 trial outcomes and full FDA drug approvals. The platform accepted more than $100,000 in wagers with trading volume at $128,401 by 3 p.m. EDT.
gizmodo.compolitics4 days ago
White House Teleprompter Operator Placed on Leave; Kalshi Freezes Over $90,000 in Speech-Content Bets
The White House placed its teleprompter operator on paid administrative leave July 16 pending a federal investigation into bets placed on President Donald Trump's speeches through the Kalshi prediction market. The staffer, identified as Gabriel Perez, allegedly made tens of thous…
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io9.gizmodo.comworld4 days ago
Kalshi Seeks Approval for Contracts on Share of Flights Canceled at Airports
Prediction market company Kalshi notified federal regulators that it plans to let users bet on the percentage of canceled flights at any given airport. The filing was reported July 15, 2026.
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yna.co.krworld5 days ago
Kalshi Halts Flight-Cancellation Contracts but Adds Drug-Trial and AI Markets
Kalshi abandoned plans to list contracts on airport-wide flight cancellations. The platform instead launched 13 contracts on clinical drug trial outcomes the same day.
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middleeasteye.netfinance5 days ago
Kalshi Traders Raise Odds U.S. Gas Prices Top $4 per Gallon by July 2026 to 90 Percent
Prediction market probabilities for U.S. gasoline above $4 per gallon by July 31 climbed sharply amid renewed U.S. strikes on Iran. Current national average stands at $3.89 per gallon.
coindesk.combusiness6 days agoUpdated
CFTC Orders Kalshi Not to Cancel Michigan Trades per Court Directive
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on July 14 directed Kalshi to ignore a Michigan court order requiring cancellation of certain customer trades. Chairman Mike Selig said the step protects market integrity under federal rules.
CoinDeskfinance7 days ago
Prediction Markets Kalshi, Polymarket and Rothera Set Combined Record Volume in June During World Cup
Kalshi, Polymarket and Rothera together processed more than $50 billion in notional trading during the opening month of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kalshi alone recorded $31 billion in total volume, with sports contracts driving the majority of activity.
nypost.comfinance11 days ago
Wall Street Firms Restrict Employee Trading on Prediction Markets
Goldman Sachs has joined other financial firms in limiting how employees can use prediction market platforms. The restrictions address potential conflicts of interest and regulatory concerns.
cointelegraph.combusiness11 days ago
Polymarket Affiliate Seeks License for Margin Trading to U.S. Users
Polymarket's U.S. affiliate applied for a futures commission merchant license to enable margin trading. The move follows Kalshi's clearance in March and comes as prediction market volumes grow rapidly.
nypost.comtechnology12 days ago
Kalshi Blocks Most Campaign Staff Trades but One Staffer Completed a Bet on Their Race
Kalshi cross-references Federal Election Commission records to flag and block campaign staffers from trading on their own races. The company reported blocking dozens of attempts since May 2026. At least one operative listed in FEC data placed a trade despite the system.
finance13 days ago
Polymarket Launches U.S. Marketing Campaign After Four-Year Ban
The prediction market platform has begun a social media and partnership campaign to rebuild its presence in the United States. The effort follows a four-year prohibition and a December launch of a CFTC-supervised mobile app.
CoinDeskbusiness15 days ago
Coinbase AI Alert on Norway vs Brazil Match Sent Hours Before Kickoff
Coinbase issued an AI-generated alert claiming Norway defeated Brazil 3-2 hours before the July 6 match began. The company said it corrected the error and updated its systems. The incident occurred as Coinbase expands prediction markets to U.S. users.
nypost.comfinance16 days ago
U.S.-Linked Wallets Led Polymarket Political Trading with $571 Million Despite IP Block
On-chain analysis shows U.S. wallets led all countries in volume on the offshore platform over the past year. Activity concentrated in geopolitics contracts that U.S. venues do not list.
benzinga.comscience16 days ago
New California Wildfire Prediction Market Opens with Simulated Trading Only, Real-Money Betting Pending
A new platform called Wyldfyre opened simulated trading on California fires using NASA and federal perimeter data. Earlier, Polymarket hosted nearly 20 wildfire questions in January 2025 that drew $1.2 million in bets. Federal and state agencies said they do not use such data for…
CoinDeskbusiness17 days ago
ESMA clarifies when prediction-market contracts fall under EU binary-options rules
The European Securities and Markets Authority said on July 4 that certain event contracts could breach the bloc's binary options prohibition when sold to retail clients as financial instruments. Firms must evaluate products by their features rather than labels.
Semaforworld18 days ago
Spotify requests removal of its logo from two prediction market sites
Spotify asked Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its logo after users allegedly manipulated streaming data to influence wagers. The company also deleted 500,000 streams from one song linked to the activity.
vox.compolitics19 days ago
Polymarket Bettor Places $400,000 Wager on Russian Leader's Removal by Year-End
A single anonymous account on the prediction platform Polymarket placed roughly $400,000 in bets that a Russian leader will leave office before December 31. The wager was reported by Forbes on July 2, 2026.
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Substrate placeholder — needs reviewfinance24 days ago
Polymarket phishing attack took $3.1 million from 11 wallets
Blockchain intelligence firm AMLBotHQ reported Saturday that roughly $3.1 million in PUSD was stolen from 11 user wallets on the prediction market platform. The funds were moved from Polygon to Ethereum, and the company pledged full refunds.
usethebitcoin.combusiness24 days ago
Polymarket Launches Audit of Promotional Videos After Wall Street Journal Report on Misleading Content
Polymarket said it is auditing its promotional videos after a Wall Street Journal investigation found the company paid creators to post content that falsely showed users winning nearly $1.9 million. A consumer protection firm filed a lawsuit against the operator and two executive…
New York Postpolitics24 days ago
Kalshi Gave Trump Jr. $300,000 in Shares After He Joined as Adviser
Prediction market Kalshi transferred about $300,000 worth of shares to Donald Trump Jr. after he became a strategic adviser early last year. The transfer occurred when the company was valued below $2 billion.
nbcnews.comtechnology25 days ago
Two senators seek federal probe of Polymarket social-media promotions
Two U.S. senators have requested a federal investigation into Polymarket’s social-media activity after a Wall Street Journal report described the prediction market’s marketing practices as deceptive. The lawmakers cited concerns over the platform’s promotion of fake bets.
CoinDeskbusiness26 days ago
Kalshi Seeks Funding at Roughly $40 Billion Valuation, Nearly Double Prior Target
The prediction market operator targets nearly double its prior $22 billion valuation. The round could close in the third quarter of 2026.
nypost.comfinance26 days ago
Prediction market operator sues Illinois governor over new state law
Kalshi filed suit against Illinois Governor Pritzker and state officials, arguing that federal oversight supersedes a state law scheduled to take effect July 1. The complaint seeks to block enforcement of the measure.
pymnts.comtechnology27 days agoUpdated
Meta Developing Arena App for Event Forecasts Using Points System, Has Not Ruled Out Real-Money Betting
Meta is building an experimental prediction-market-style app called Arena that would let users forecast outcomes in politics, sports, entertainment and world affairs. The project uses a points system and revives an earlier Forecast product from 2020. CoinDesk reported the details…
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New York Posttechnology27 days agoUpdated
Meta Is Developing a New Prediction-Markets App Called Arena
Meta is building an experimental prediction markets app called Arena. Mark Zuckerberg directed the project, which aims to rival Polymarket and Kalshi. The app may start with a points system before considering real currency.
Reasonworld27 days ago
Polymarket Allegedly Spent Nearly $2 Million on Fake Trades to Inflate Liquidity
A Wall Street Journal probe found $1.9 million in fabricated bets used to promote the platform. The findings have prompted scrutiny of Polymarket's marketing practices.
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Substrate placeholder — needs reviewbusiness29 days agoUpdated
Polymarket Paid Creators for Over 1,100 Videos of Simulated Bets and Wins
The prediction market platform directed creators to film fabricated wins on replica sites. A Wall Street Journal review found the depicted trades would have lost money in 118 cases totaling $166,000.
The Guardianpolitics30 days ago
Prediction market platforms expand across U.S. states with limited problem-gambling resources
Online prediction market platforms are operating in states where gambling has long been restricted, while public funding for addiction services remains limited or nonexistent in many areas. Advocates say the gap between market growth and treatment resources is widening.
CoinDeskfinance31 days ago
Charles Schwab to Offer Yes-or-No Options on S&P 500 via Cboe Partnership
The brokerage will let customers wager on whether the index closes above or below preset levels. Rollout is planned for the coming months.
CoinDeskfinance33 days ago
Kentucky Sues Prediction Market Platforms Over Sports Betting
Kentucky filed suit against two prediction market companies, alleging they offered unlicensed sports betting. The state also cited the platforms' partners for failing to provide required gambling-addiction resources.
decrypt.cosports35 days ago
Prediction Markets Draw New Bettors Ahead of 2026 World Cup
Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have grown in popularity since the last World Cup. Bettors can now wager on match outcomes and tournament results through these platforms. The 2026 tournament marks the first major soccer event since their expansion.
ai36 days ago
Kalshi Deploys Internal AI Agent Harrison for Contract Design
The prediction market platform has developed an AI system to assist with contract creation and risk assessment as trading volume grows.
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Cnbcfinance36 days ago
U.S.-Iran deal lifts Hormuz naval blockade, restores normal traffic
Prediction market odds that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before August reached 58 percent after President Trump announced a memorandum of understanding with Iran. The agreement includes removal of the U.S. naval blockade and reopening of the strait a…
CoinDeskfinance36 days ago
House Committee Holds Hearing on Crypto Tax Bills as CFTC Issues Prediction Market Proposal
The House Ways and Means Committee held a hearing on digital asset tax legislation. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission published a proposal for regulating prediction markets.
thehindubusinessline.comfinance37 days ago
Coalition sues Kentucky over 14.25% prediction market tax
A coalition including Kalshi, Crypto.com and Polymarket filed suit Friday against Kentucky's new excise tax on prediction market operators. The 14.25% levy applies to transaction fees and exceeds the state's 9.75% tax on horse-track wagers.
finance38 days ago
Polymarket Trader Places $500,000 Bet on U.S. World Cup Opener Outcome
A Polymarket account identified as initial77a has placed a wager exceeding $500,000 that the U.S. men's national team will not win its opening match against Paraguay. The bet would return approximately $972,000 if successful.
Semaforpolitics39 days ago
CFTC Chair Weighs Lawsuits Against States Regulating Prediction Markets
Mike Selig said the agency is evaluating legal action beyond Minnesota and would welcome a Supreme Court ruling on federal jurisdiction. He also outlined proposed rules that would restrict sports wagers and bar contracts on war, terrorism, and assassinations.
Wiredbusiness40 days ago
Study Estimates 30 Percent of Polymarket Volume From U.S. Traders
A Rutgers statistician found U.S. users routed between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through the offshore platform between May 2025 and April 2026 despite a 2022 ban.
BBC Newsbusiness40 days agoUpdated
Kalshi Implements Employer Disclosure Rules on High-Risk Prediction Markets to Screen Presumptive Insiders
The prediction market operator will collect work information from users on markets it flags for insider-trading risk and will screen out presumptive insiders before trades are placed.
CoinDeskfinance41 days ago
CFTC Proposes First U.S. Prediction Market Rule for Public-Interest Reviews
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a notice of proposed rulemaking on Wednesday that outlines a process for reviewing whether event contracts meet the federal public-interest standard. The proposal covers contracts on prediction market platforms including those opera…
Bloombergfinance41 days ago
CFTC Proposes Restrictions on Prediction Market Contracts
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a draft rule Wednesday that would bar certain event contracts tied to war, terrorism, and assassination. The measure targets prediction markets that currently allow trading on those outcomes.
cointelegraph.compolitics41 days ago
Trump Regulators Propose New Oversight Rules for Prediction Markets
Regulators under President Trump have drafted new guidelines for prediction markets that preserve most sports betting while targeting obvious manipulation risks.
New York Posttechnology41 days ago
Kalshi Adopts Employer Verification and Risk Scoring for Insider-Risk Prediction Markets
Kalshi will require users placing certain wagers to disclose their employers starting in the coming weeks. The policy targets markets with elevated insider-trading or manipulation risk.
app.buzzsumo.compolitics41 days ago
Kalshi Mandates Employer Disclosure on Sensitive Markets and Adds Whistleblower Tools After Polymarket Insider-Trading Case
The prediction market platform introduced employment verification and risk scoring for sensitive contracts effective immediately after its advisory committee recommended tighter controls.
usethebitcoin.combusiness41 days ago
Kalshi to Collect Employment Data, Bar Presumptive Insiders from High-Risk Prediction Markets
Kalshi said Tuesday it will require employment information from users trading in markets scored for insider-trading risk and will bar presumptive insiders from those contracts.
theconversation.comworld41 days ago
Kalshi to Require Employment Data for Certain Event Contracts
The prediction market platform will collect employment information from users placing bets on contracts tied to companies or economic indicators. The measure aims to reduce the risk of insider trading on its platform.
thehindubusinessline.comfinance41 days ago
U.S. President Has Predicted Iran Deal 38 Times Since March
The U.S. president repeated a prediction that an Iran agreement could be signed within days. A CNN count shows this marks at least the 38th such statement since March 23.
Semaforworld41 days ago
Spanish Soccer Club's Relegation Insurance Traded on Kalshi Prediction Market
A Spanish soccer team's insurance policy against relegation was transferred to the Kalshi prediction market after being placed with a broker. The club said it had no knowledge of the transfer and did not place a bet.
politics42 days ago
Kalshi and Polymarket bar paid creators from questioning election results
The two prediction-market platforms updated policies to prohibit affiliates from denying election outcomes or spreading related claims. The companies asked some creators to remove posts or lose sponsorship after recent California primary coverage.
nbcnews.compolitics42 days ago
Polymarket Traders See Over 60% Chance of U.S.-Brokered Iran-Israel Ceasefire by July
Betting markets show traders still assign more than 60% probability to a new peace agreement or ceasefire extension before the end of July, down roughly 14 percentage points after recent fighting.
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usethebitcoin.comworld42 days ago
Prediction Markets Grow Rapidly Among Young Men, But Most Users Lose Money Amid Insider-Trading Cases
CBS News reported that young men make up the majority of users on major prediction market platforms. Data shows six in ten Kalshi users are between 18 and 34, with roughly three million of four million active accounts belonging to men.
New York Posttechnology42 days ago
Prediction Markets Ask Influencers to Remove Posts Questioning Los Angeles Election Results
Kalshi and Polymarket directed paid partners to delete social media posts that cast doubt on the outcome of the Los Angeles mayoral election. The platforms cited internal rules that prohibit affiliates from questioning the integrity of election results.