China Pursues Long-Term Strategy Toward Taiwan Without Near-Term Military Action

Beijing is pursuing a long-term strategy toward Taiwan that prioritizes achieving unification at the lowest possible cost, according to an article published May 8, 2026, in Foreign Affairs. Amanda Hsiao and Bonnie S. U.S. intervention. The authors stated that Beijing is confident it can compel Taiwan toward unification without a full-scale invasion while preventing any move toward formal independence.

China has not ruled out the use of force. The article said Beijing would consider military action including a blockade or invasion if Taiwan declares independence, if the United States grants Taiwan official diplomatic recognition, or if leaders conclude no non-military path to unification remains.

For now, however, Chinese officials see their strategy as effective and military action as unnecessary in the near term.

Polls show decreasing support for independence among Taiwan's youth, the authors reported. In April, Cheng Li-wun, chair of Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang, met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing. She reaffirmed her party's opposition to independence and support for the 1992 Consensus, which holds that both sides of the strait belong to one China.

Beijing's approach will face a test in 2028 with presidential elections in both Taiwan and the United States. If Taiwan reelects its current president and Beijing judges that he is advancing steps toward formal independence, China could apply sharper pressure.

Such measures could include sending ships and aircraft into Taiwan's territorial waters and airspace or imposing a quarantine around the island.

The strategy rests on the view that the balance of power is shifting in China's favor relative to the United States. U.S. economic and technological pressure. The article noted that China successfully responded to the Trump administration's 2025 trade war with reciprocal tariffs and restrictions on rare-earth exports, moves it assessed led Washington to back down.

U.S. systems at lower cost. At the same time, the most recent five-year plan acknowledges risks in the Chinese economy, including local government debt, deflation, a property market crisis and slowing productivity growth. U.S. leverage. Chinese leaders remain wary of the costs of premature conflict.

Xi Jinping's purges have removed about half of his top military commanders, likely slowing military modernization and operational planning. A major conflict with the United States could bring economic losses measured in trillions of dollars, domestic instability and international isolation.

As long as Beijing believes its long-term position is strengthening, the authors concluded, it is likely to continue exercising patience.

“Chinese leaders see patience as a winning strategy.”