Colombia Presidential Runoff Pits Crime Crackdown Against Peace Talks

Colombian voters will decide Sunday between two sharply different approaches to security in a presidential runoff. Abelardo de la Espriella, a 47-year-old criminal defense lawyer and political newcomer, leads the race after campaigning on the construction of ten megaprisons, an end to peace talks, and the capture or killing of ten criminal group leaders within his first 90 days.

De la Espriella has appeared on the campaign trail in a black bulletproof vest, addressing crowds from behind armored glass and greeting supporters with a military salute.

Those policies include negotiations with armed groups and social programs aimed at addressing the causes of violence. De la Espriella has said the megaprisons would be built, financed, and operated by private companies in remote areas, with security provided by the state and staffed by veterans and reservists. He has also called for an all-out war against criminal organizations.

Analysts have questioned whether the approach used in El Salvador would succeed in Colombia. The country has at least 35,000 armed fighters, covers territory roughly 54 times the size of El Salvador, and contains vast areas of Amazon rainforest and mountain ranges that armed groups control.

Colombia's military and police are already operating at full capacity, according to Elizabeth Dickinson of the International Crisis Group. A 2016 peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia reduced some violence, but implementation shortfalls allowed dissident factions to persist.

The International Committee of the Red Cross has described Colombia's current humanitarian situation as its worst in a decade, with armed groups expanding their ranks and territorial reach. "What we've seen from a long history of evidence is that there is no magic wand," Dickinson said.