politics
Dallas Fed Paper Links Unauthorized Immigration to Higher Home Prices, Rents, and Local Employment
A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas working paper found that each 1% increase in unauthorized workers relative to a local labor force was associated with a 2.2% rise in home prices and a 1.4% increase in rents. The study covered the period from March 2021 to March 2024.
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A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas working paper found that each 1% increase in unauthorized workers relative to a local labor force was associated with a 2.2% rise in home prices and a 1.4% increase in rents. The same increase corresponded with a 1% rise in overall employment and showed no evidence of reduced average wages.
New York Post reported that the paper combined immigration court records with government administrative data to assess effects on local labor and housing markets.
Researchers concluded that unauthorized immigrant worker flows accounted for about 30% of employment growth, roughly 30% of home-price growth, and about 20% of rent growth in the average metropolitan area between March 2021 and March 2024. The study described 2021 through 2024 as an “unprecedented boom” in illegal immigration.
Population before slowing sharply in mid-2024. Researchers found little evidence that homebuilding expanded enough to meet the added demand. They concluded the influx acted as a housing demand shock in markets where supply was already constrained.
The paper is a preliminary draft circulated for professional comment and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.
