EIA Raises 2026 U.S. Gasoline Price Forecast by 18 Cents Amid Red Sea Conflict and Strait of Hormuz Disruptions

U.S. Energy Information Administration released its monthly short-term energy outlook report on May 12, 2026, assuming the Strait of Hormuz will be effectively closed through late May. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will resume gradually from June 2026 but is not expected to return to pre-conflict levels until later in 2026.

U.S. motor fuel prices. U.S. 88 per gallon in 2026. That forecast is 18 cents per gallon higher than its prior forecast issued in April 2026.

Before the war, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz amounted to a fifth of global oil supplies. 5 million barrels per day of crude oil output was shut in during April 2026 from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain. 5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026.

Brent crude oil prices are expected to stay near $106 per barrel in May and June 2026. 85 per barrel. The agency projects Brent crude to peak at $115 per barrel in Q2 2026.

6 million barrels per day this year. U.S. and Israel has upended global energy markets as millions of barrels per day of Middle Eastern energy exports have been stranded.

Prices for gasoline, diesel and other fuels have hit multi-year highs. The developments pose a major political challenge for President Donald Trump just months ahead of midterm elections in November. The forecast assumes that the Strait of Hormuz will be effectively closed through late May, before a gradual reopening starts next month, the EIA said.

Vessels were visible in the Strait of Hormuz near Musandam, Oman, as recently as May 8, 2026. The article was published on May 12, 2026 by Reuters and carried by Al-Monitor.