El Niño expected to strengthen and raise global extreme weather risk

A strengthening El Niño is forecast to increase the likelihood of extreme weather events around the world, Euronews reported. The phenomenon occurs when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise above average, an event that takes place every two to seven years on average.

El Niño raises global temperatures and has been linked to droughts and wildfires. The most recent episode ran from May 2023 to March 2024 and contributed to record heat during that period.

Europe outlook Impacts in Europe are described as indirect and generally milder than in tropical regions. The current El Niño is not expected to affect summer 2026 conditions on the continent. Recent heat waves that produced temperatures above 40°C and caused thousands of deaths are not attributed to El Niño, according to the report.

A milder, wetter, and windier autumn and early winter remain possible later in the year.

Climate context and food supply Climate experts note that most El Niño events raise global average temperatures by about 0.2°C. Climate scientist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London stated that the natural cycle “comes and goes” while climate change continues to worsen with ongoing fossil fuel use.

Ioanna Vergini, founder of WFY24, told Euronews that El Niño has been used as a “distraction” from climate change. A World Weather Attribution analysis found that recent European heat dome temperatures would have been “virtually impossible” without continued emissions.

The IHE Delft Institute for Water Education warned that crop failures in regions such as Nicaragua could affect staple foods imported by Europe, raising the risk of supply disruptions.