El Niño intensifies with 81% chance of reaching very strong status

The agency placed an 81% probability on the event attaining "very strong" status, which would place it among the strongest El Niños recorded since 1950. Ocean temperatures in key Pacific monitoring regions stand at or near record highs for this period.

Forecast details The most significant weather effects are expected during fall and winter, including severe droughts, heavy rainfall, and heat waves in various regions. A rainier winter is projected for much of the southern United States, while northern areas of the United States and Canada are likely to see warmer conditions.

Drier weather is forecast for Indonesia, and wetter, warmer conditions are expected in the eastern Pacific. The event is also expected to reduce Atlantic hurricane activity.

Background and context El Niño releases accumulated subsurface heat from the tropical Pacific into the atmosphere. Scientists noted that the current event is occurring against a backdrop of long-term ocean warming. Many researchers project that 2027 could set a new global temperature record as a result of the heat released by this El Niño.