Ex-IEA Chief: Hormuz Closure Triggers Third Oil Shock Centered on Asia, Accelerating Global Electrification

Former IEA chief Nobuo Tanaka warned this week that Asia will bear the brunt of the energy crisis resulting from the war in the Middle East. He spoke at a hydrogen industry event in Malaysia. Tanaka said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a nightmare scenario come true.

The closure has cost the region 15 million barrels daily in lost output that is simply impossible to replace, he stated. As much as 60% of overall Asian crude oil imports come from the Middle East. 74 million barrels per day, according to figures from Kpler cited by Reuters.

Asia’s top suppliers of crude include Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. 4 million barrels daily due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In April 2026, Iraqi oil exports fell to 10 million barrels, down from 93 million barrels before the war between the United States and Israel against Iran began, the Iraqi oil minister reported.

Tanaka said the way to overcome the crisis is electrification. “Thanks to electric vehicles, solar power, artificial intelligence and data centres, the age of electricity is here,” he said. “The demand for EVs is rising everywhere.

The current crisis may further accelerate electrification because countries want to reduce dependence on imported oil,” Tanaka stated, pointing to the EU and China as examples of the successful pursuit of energy diversification. China remains the world’s largest oil importer. China is a major gas consumer and the top coal consumer in the world.

The EU is struggling economically under the weight of exorbitant electricity prices. Tanaka said: “The first oil shock created the IEA in 1973. The second transformed industries and economies.