Global Airlines Reduce May Schedules by 2 Million Seats and 12,000 Flights Due to Jet Fuel Supply Issues

Airlines worldwide have cut about two million seats and canceled roughly 12,000 flights from their May schedules over the past two weeks, driven by jet fuel supply pressures from the ongoing conflict with Iran. The disruptions stem from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route that carries around a fifth of the world's oil.

Hostilities with Iran began on 28 February, escalating into what the International Energy Agency has described as the world's largest oil output disruption.

Total available seats across all carriers in May dropped from 132 million to 130 million between mid and late April, according to aviation analytics company Cirium. Gulf carriers including Qatar Airways, Etihad and Emirates have suffered the greatest impact from airspace restrictions and airport disruptions in the Middle East.

The cost of jet fuel has doubled since the conflict erupted at the end of February, climbing from $99 per barrel to a peak of $209 in early April before settling at $181 per barrel last week.

This surge has prompted major operational changes among carriers. Lufthansa has removed 20,000 flights from its schedule between May and October, while Air China has scrapped domestic services. 4 billion this year, and American Airlines expects an increase exceeding $4 billion.

British Airways owner IAG will pass higher fuel expenses on to passengers through increased ticket prices. IAG acknowledges it was not immune to the volatility despite hedging arrangements. The UK faces particular vulnerability as the continent's largest net importer of jet fuel, with no strategic reserves, according to Goldman Sachs.

The bank stated that inventories in some countries, especially the UK, could fall to critically low levels, increasing the likelihood of rationing measures. European jet fuel supply is experiencing extreme tightness following the Strait of Hormuz closure, Goldman Sachs noted, with Britain heavily dependent on imports and limited refining capacity.

The country now operates just four oil refineries after the Grangemouth oil refinery in Scotland was shuttered in April 2025 and the Lindsey oil refinery in Lincolnshire was shuttered last August.

The International Energy Agency issued a warning in mid-April that Europe possessed just six weeks of jet fuel reserves before shortages would materialise. The Government has introduced emergency measures permitting airlines to consolidate passengers from separate bookings onto fewer aircraft to conserve fuel.

"Before any changes are made, passengers need cast-iron assurances that their rights will not be weakened and that airlines cannot use reform as cover to shift the cost of disruption on to travellers," said Rory Boland, travel editor of Which?.

Shadow transport secretary Richard Holden said families risked being herded on to a different plane, at a time of the airline's choosing. He added that Britain is exposed to fuel supply risks that a properly energy-secure country would not face. Sir Keir Starmer cautioned last week that British holidaymakers might need to reconsider their travel destinations should the conflict continue affecting aviation.

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander sought to reassure the public on Sunday that summer plans would not face major disruption. She cited increased fuel imports from the United States and higher output from domestic refineries.